Weekly close for Bitcoin and Ethereum – Alts rally may continue

Always take in consideration non of this information is financial advice or official announcement from any specific project, I’m no financial advisor, trader or expert, this is just my personal opinion on certain project mention on this article, cryptocurrencies are extreme high risk assets and you must do you own research, never follow what I or other people say on internet

Weekly close for Bitcoin and Ethereum – Alts rally may continue

If you follow my posts you can tell that I have been very bullish on the current market state because of how everything has broken 2019 levels and even back testing 2017 highs for Bitcoin, we have also seen some altcoins skyrocket without taking a rest like Celsius Network although the tokenomics of this altcoin are different to others based on the fact that the project buy back their coin from the market to pay interest to holders and this interest is made based on borrowers, its a cycle that is not perfect although if you keep getting users who want to borrow crypto from them then holders will keep getting paid. Enough of Celsius Network I’ll talk about it latter on this post, lets start with DXY (Dollar Index) since until today either Maxis like it or not Bitcoin still depends of what the dollar and other legacy markets decide to do they are not 100% correlated but should take in consideration since a lot of money is coming into Bitcoin from institutions as a hedge to traditional markets, then I’ll go through Bitcoin and other altcoins including all mighty Ethereum that had a MEGA BULLISH NEWS last week.

DXY and S&P500 I just take them as reference based on price action, nothing special just keeping and eye on them and most of the time in case of any significant move to the downside for the SPX (S&P500) and pump for the DXY since they both can affect Bitcoin price as mention in a negative way on this two directions.

S&P500 Daily Chart

Stocks only go up! Well I cant say this is true but the stock market has remain on this bullish rally despite what many traders may think about the economy but something I have learn this year since I have only been trading for two years is that one thing is the market and the other is the economy, not much change after U.S elections but we might be still a bit early for that, markets seem to doesn’t care about lock downs happening again, IN MY OPINION I think that people are use to think market would crash based on what had happen before in history whenever there was a similar situation world wide but there is a key factor that has been pushing all markets up and that’s THE TECH, technology is the key factor that aloud people to keep working from home different from previous scenarios where everyone needed to stay lock down until things settle down.

On the daily SPX is still on the same uptrend pattern although with the end of the year coming up I think lot of positions will be abandon partially taking profits, double bottom play out perfectly as a retest of the 200EMA around 3228 and it might be setup to retest the 20EMA for a bounce and keep going up, it still looks bullish but will probably take a rest, sideways move for the rest of the year.

DXY Daily Chart

Not much to say about the dollar index, really don’t see it as a threat to crypto at the moment, different from markets the dollar price is something that its going to be affected directly by the virus situation since U.S have been printing so much money than ever before, something I mention on my previous post were I talk about current analog currencies dying and then moving into the new tech as China and U.S.A are moving into digital currency, I really don’t see the price of dollar recovering anytime soon, right now looks like its about to bounce based on the daily chart, coming January of next year something different could happen if the new digital dollar starts being test based on news this is something can could move the price up but doesn’t need to happen neither.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

If you are new to crypto you should know that nothing can go up forever, Bitcoin had a massive rally up to $19442 for about 7 weeks a straight up lather, after hitting 2020 highs and leaving behind the 2019 highs of $14k in some exchanges we see a common 15% retrace for the price of Bitcoin very normal behavior during a bull market, there still people saying this is a double top although I dont think thats the case but as always there are clues on the chart that tell us were it will probably go to. As shown on the chart above the price is now moving on the previous week levels as a channel that most likely could play out of the rest of the year but people are still extra bullish on social media.

Bullish Case:
Measure the move from bottom around $11500 on October of this year a channel that went from $9900 to $12500, this drop hit the 0.382 on the FIB levels considering this could be the first bounce to then continue to the next level of 0.5 or even a retest of the 0.618 golden level, all this very close to 2019 that could be the BEST retracement the price could have for many reasons:

– 2019 high acts as support
– Drop to the 0.618 golden area, something algos and traders look for to load up at around $14500 to $14k
– At that moment most likely 200EMA would be at those levels and will confirm the BULLISH retracement

Do this things and it still looks bullish, you could probably go short after a rejection at the $18900 (previous week high) with a stop at $19400, low leverage of course, then wait for previous scenario to go long, most likely this is what I’m going to try to do.

Bearish Case:
Really with how bullish Bitcoin is at the moment and the rest of the market, with Ethereum braking $500 and holding strong, Bitcoin would have to brake the 2019 high and then go for a deep dive into the $12k area to totally nuke and negate this bull rally, but until Bitcoin continues to ride the 20 EMA and respecting the FIB levels for a healthy correction I really don’t see it going into a bear period

File Coin (FIL) Daily Chart

As a fact I know very little about FIL, I have been trading this coin just because different from other altcoins it has hold very well after the massacre of Binance Futures listing, we can see how it went up 30% after braking to the up the symmetrical triangle, I’m very careful with this patter since more than once I have got burn trying to play it out but it did this time, I read once that there is a huge supply still around and probably its just traders taking profits, I’m not on this position anymore just wanted to let you know how it play out, I think this still has room to go up based on altcoin market conditions, also momentum on RSI and MACD still looks positive, its a big IF when it comes to altcoins right now different form a few months back when Bitcoin was not moving too hard, although the altcoin leader ETHEREUM has woke up and is leading the way.

Hive Daily Chart

I recently re enter HIVE on November the 5th after hitting some nice gains on futures for two reasons

– I have this rule when I make awesome gains trading but it feels too easy, probably I was lucky, for this reason I take part of those gains and lock them up either on my long term hold wallet (that I have no immediate access at all, its like 2 hours away) or lock it up on a project staking or something similar.
– Price was awesome, I remember missing the $0.10 cent opportunity back when HIVE went out to market and I didn’t buy so this time was the perfect moment to buy some HIVE and go back to blogging so I could also stop trading a bit because as mention I usually do something stupid when I’m doing great.

HIVE is looking OK for me right now, it went up to $0.15 the highest and seems like there is a ton of fishing orders at the $0.10 level so Bitcoin correction haven’t dump the price as a fact it held very strong, with all the development going around HIVE as still the biggest social network platform in crypto and with Leofinance I can only say that price will go up from now on if the $0.10 price is respected and keeps traveling within that blue channel for sometime, staking coins or platform coins move slow, they don’t suddenly explode in price since users accumulate them to keep staking and making more gains on the long run.

ETHEREUM Daily Chart

Ethereum is doing fantastic, timing is very important in crypto and there are few things IMO that will help Ethereum to keep going up:

– Staking contract now holds over 385k of ETHEREUM,
– China just seize 0.7% recently from PlusToken scam, this one not so good but still
– Bitcoin bull run just starting
– DeFi second wave about to start with altcoin szn

Usually locking up coins help to cap the circulating supply but that’s not enough for price to keep going up, the project needs adoption, volume, traders and investors. Ethereum already has all this and development keeps moving, Ethereum development moves slow and there is nothing wrong about it, the chart looks very bullish similar to Bitcoin, all altcoins depend on what Bitcoin does so for all this altcoins keep moving this way we need Bitcoin to keep within that bullish scenario similar to what I describe, in the altcoin department Ethereum just keep leading the pack with the tons of DeFi projects on top of it, watch out for DeFi projects since lot have been hacked or exploit but that has nothing to do with Ethereum since the network has not been compromise.

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