False Optimism Ahead Of A Double Dip Recession

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Hey Jessrecessionists

2020 was quite the year for global GDP which took its first major hit in years due to the rampant pandemic and global lockdown rules in each country. Its effects were most evident in the March lows of the market, but governments stepped in along with central banks to provide liquidity and stimulus and bring the markets back from the brink.

Lockdowns began to ease and we saw economic activity turn be it hampered. Naturally going from full steam ahead, to a screeching halt and starting up again was going to leave some people left behind and even during the recovery people continue to lose employment and velocity of money slows down.

As we moved back into work mode for some and others adapted to working from home that economic activity helped bring back some positivity and we had a recovery, it started with V shape, then U shape, then L shaped and now we calling it K shaped lol, when they break out these random naming conventions you know its pretty much anyone's guess.

doubledip.png

Not out of the woods yet

Sadly the virus continues to plague us, countries are facing 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves and new lockdowns are rolling out, eliminating what little growth we had going for us since the March lows.

We've limped on and since humans are creatures of habit, we often think the world revolves around us. Many people are super positive that a change in the way we measure dates, as in the new year is going to have some effect on the way the world works.

Sadly that to me is only misguided optimism, there's nothing magical about the new year. I have no issue with being positive, overall I am pretty positive that we're moving in the right direction over a longer time frame, it will just take some while to play out and some pain along the way.

Dip it low

I think it's pretty evident that we're headed for our second downturn in what is called a double-dip recession.

A double-dip is when a recession is followed by a short-lived recovery and another recession. Double-dip recessions can be caused due to a variety of reasons, and involve prolonged unemployment and low GDP.

We don't know how governments are going to react but one thing is for sure, they are more reactive than proactive, they're not planning for the future, they're only interested in handling the present as it comes.

Once the double-dip recession is confirmed I am sure they're going to spring into action once again, throwing money at the problem and trying to get growth back on track at any cost.

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think?

So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."

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(Edited)

About the pandemic I also think that all this is false optimism or even worst just misinformation and ignorance mixed with some dispair of the people to return to their normal lives, which isn't likely to happen before the vaccination is complete. The proccess will take several months and we may be waiting it until summer arrives.

Being optimistic about the effectiveness of the vaccine probably won't resolve the problem permanently (I'm quite scared about having another mutation on the virus and making the vaccines obsolete).

In the economic issue probably you're right and we will have another dip these months. If you haven't any crypto this may be another sad year but I'm really expecting some movement here in Hive and Leo so could we have some good news after all?, idk.

I would be happy if I could quit my job and start here a full time job, or at least a good complement for it, but what i'm talking about, that's just daydreaming.

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I hate to be a doomer and be all negative, but you make so many fair points, I do think it's going to be a long-drawn-out case that still has plenty of twists and turns to go, the longer it carries on the longer it stretches the business cycle.

I think there will be a lift in crypto but not because it's getting better but only because we'll see price inflation and people wanting to store their wealth in anything that holds it better than fiat.

Perhaps that can be the case in the future, who knows? Having a job in 2021 is a blessing, use it while you can

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think there will be a lift in crypto but not because it's getting better but only because we'll see price inflation and people wanting to store their wealth in anything that holds it better than fiat.

Agree and it's sad because it's just very weird to be celebrating here the mooning of some cryptos when the world is upside down 😕.

Having a job in 2021 is a blessing, use it while you can.

Aye, it is, I'm not feeling very lucky but compared with other people that are unemployed now I should be.

Cheers.

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Another solid offering from the King of Jess Hill. It's looking rather bleak here in Malaysia, especially as our wave number I don't know is at an ATH.

I closed my business and have downsized dramatically as a learning centre in a pandemic is not viable for mom n pops I'm going to look at a new office space now and hope to pick up the pieces.

I also just sold 75% of my btc at 33k as I'm in no position to play with any resets or overly optimistic we'll never see blank price on btc again. My dump is giving me a snorkel and if I can pop my head above water I'll consider it a major triumph.

It's absolutely a steem success story and that's what we're all here for.

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I'm so sorry to hear that man, that's quite the dick punch, I'm always keen to hear how its going down in other countries. Here people are still pretty happy go lucky for some reason, no idea why

I've been preparing for months, saving up what I can, making some investments and slimming down as far as I can, I don't know what this year is going to be like but I want to be prepared for anything.

I don't see why you wouldn't cash in on this pump makes sense, I haven't because I am willing to hold this one long term, also if I have to make a quick dash for it, i'd like to have something I can take with me anywhere

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All good man, gotta roll with the dick punches. I would hold on too long term if it was an option it's just really not.

It's kinda just weird here now at this point with the mitigation of covid. We had it under control but the cronyism had to go and have an election in hot spot east Malaysia and most all our clusters stemmed from either that or the exploitation of migrant workers in factories and deplorable living conditions.

Capitalism has really reared its ugly head and manifested itself into a truly deadly atmosphere. I've essentially gone off the left end and committed to full on accelerationism as the most logical means to an end. It's not a sunny disposition so it suits me well and it's difficult to argue with Jessie J curves in nearly every facet of life.

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Lol, I've got but a nub left where my dick used to be, we're pretty socialist this side and they're stealing whatever they can at the moment as the ship goes down. I think debating economic systems right now is like debating what the band should play on the titanic. In any system, if the shit hits the fan, it's every man for himself

Crime is picking up here, which says a lot for a place with as high crime rates as we have, homelessness too, it's pretty nuts watching it all unfold.

Lol I was just telling a friend I don't like that more people are becoming dark and depressed, doomers, I carved out this niche for myself I don't want any compnay lol

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(Edited)

Surely there's enough space for all of us to hang onto this floating plank in the sea of despair.

It is surreal watching the shit hit the fan everywhere. I completely agree that it's an absurd concept to debate socioeconomic or political theory during a meltdown. If one has time and inclination for such endeavours I'm positive we're not on the same side.

If your inner hustler didn't come out over the last calendar year it's not happening 😂 Hang in there comrade!I am certain that those that have not been under the umbrella of imperialism and privilege are at an advantage. The benefactors of this death rattle of late capitalism will not be able to keep their sanity and I'm doing all I can to assist them with their inevitable demise.

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Oh, I definitely think there's more than enough space, but please keep your social distance 😂 I don't want any positive coodies rubbing off on me.

I've legit just been sitting and thinking about it all trying to make sense of it and for the most part, I think if your rich or a hustler you'll do fine in any environment. Sure a lot of people are getting their arses handed to them and this is one hell of a humbling experience, lol if you're ass isn't humbled after this there's any hope for you!

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Definitely see a double dip recession happening.

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I guess the real question is how deep and long will the second dip be?

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quite an informative post tho. could you shed more light on k , u and L shape.. I really did not understand it..
Happy New year

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  • A V shape recovery Is an immediate and rapid increase GDP and improvement in the economy

  • A U shaped recovery takes a bit longer but eventually sees rapid improvement

  • an L shaped recover is slow and nowhere near the previous highs it’s just a flat or small improvement

  • A K shaped economy is a bifurcation of the market so some people do extremely well in the new economy and others continue to decline

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well explained.. Thanks

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Then there's the x(n+1) = r * x(n) * (1 - x(n)) shaped recovery:

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LOL I think this is the most accurate one yet,

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100%

Especially with Bitcoin trading 50% above all time highs, people think this parabolic run is going to last forever for some reason. Everyone thinks 2021 couldn't be possibly worse than 2020... really? Why is that? Is it because they've never endured real hardship in their entire lives? People in America are soft.

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Well buy high and sell higher has been working in the stock market for 40 years now lol, its basic reality for anyone who doesn't look at longer-term history and cycles.

I never truly understood how the hot hand fallacy only worked one way, if something goes well, people always think it will continue to do well, but if something goes blady, there's this surly it turns around soon. I don't think people realise the exponential knock-on effect all these lockdowns have caused and it still needs to play out.

If you think you can turn the economy on and off like your buggy cellphone and everything is just fine, lol its laugable.

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Yes, they've been stopping evictions for how many months now? What are they going to do about that? That's just one tiny things in a series of disasters that's just being pushed off the a later date.

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Governments are hyper sensitive about financial markets so they will continue to inject liquidity. This does not really help the common person. We need to get money in the people’s hands.

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I agree they happy to sacrifice the currency and the purchasing power of currency holders to maintain the system but no amount of liquidity can resolve solvency in fact it makes it worse

Even if you put the money in the hands of the people you have no control over where it goes and will it resolve solvency

Let’s say for example people rather buy food then pay rent, food prices go up as more money chases less goods! Landlords still don’t get paid, they lose their property, banks have wide spread defaults and so it continues

I get the appeal of free money to the people but it really won’t solve the problem just buy a bit of time before you have to deal with it again

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Like you said that's all governments do solve today's problem to only deal with it tomorrow. I don't know the answer, but at this point I would rather they give the billions they inject into the stock market directly to the people. 2k month and pay everyone for the months they missed too. Think of what 10k in everyone's pockets would mean for spending, saving and investing. Not only that but give universal healthcare and free community college. Take care of people not corporations.

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I don't know the answer either, but if they stop giving companies money that means you obliterate the pension funds which hurts people too, so they really can't stop that. I don't mind giving people money if it works by all means, as long as I can get my purchasing power out of cash before that price inflation hits.

Giving cash to people is also a subsidy for business, how much of that cash just goes right back to wallmart, to apple, and with increasing demand, it means they can open up their margins and gobble up that cash pretty quickly.

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Good post.

I am likely not going to sleep and trade all day with the volatility of thebUS election being 11/10 emotional struggles, the markets will respond.

I am watching for the day, the S&P500 straight up shorts their entire stock market, and goes directly into Bitcoin or even potentially a smart contract capable chain with more encryption than bitcoins public nodes.

There is some very sophisticated Point of Sale systems that could replace entire workforces of cashiers and general laborers now.

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