Candid Journal Entry #16: The Story Behind Numbers

avatar
(Edited)

         We are approaching the middle of June. The COVID-19 cases in the upcoming week or two should reflect the impact of the protests. Part of me fear that we'd discover a rapid rise in number of confirmed cases. Then again, we may not due to the rate of testing. Taking a look at the Utah state website, we haven't even tested 10% of the population yet.

         Of course, you don't need the entire population to come up with statistics. Often, statistics raise questions. I'm not even talking about the likely scenario where healthcare facilities shoehorn data. Why would they do that, you might ask? Could be anything from receiving federal/state funding to pushing an agenda.

         Remember the old meme from Futurama:

         It would be silly to make things up out of thin air. But, it's not difficult to say "well, it's true from a certain point of view". You've already heard about fudging statistics to increase the number of coronavirus deaths.

         Even looking at the demographics breakdown, there are so many questions. When we look at the numbers, we should ask ourselves: what is the story there? At least, that's what I try to extrapolate.

Hispanics/Latino

         How are they almost 40% of the incidence in the state while having a low hospitalization rate? Super powers? Better genetics? No insurance? Or is it because many of them fall under the illegal category? It could be as simple as Hispanics actually go and get tested.

         Regardless, they are the most hard hit group in the entire state.

Blacks

         Similar situation like the Hispanics, though there aren't that many of them in the state. The scale of it is also only about half of the above group. Does that mean African Americans are doing better than Hispanics?

Asians

         Asians seem to be the go-to "outliers" to disregard in social justice or any other rhetoric. Why do they have a much lower incidence rate compared to other minorities? Is it because they are all richer than persons of colors and live in white neighborhoods? Those are rhetorical questions, by the way.

         Given my personal experience, I've seen more Asians wear face masks in public. People value health over inconveniences. I guess it's a cultural thing.

Natives/Pacific Islanders

         They have a much higher hospitalization rate compared to other groups. So, insurance may not be a factor after all? It reminds me of the smallpox blankets from the colonial era.


         How about we scrap the entire chart because when I add up the demographic breakdown, they come up to be 102%? Or, do we tell ourselves it's some rounding error? When we look at the figures like that, how do we put "other races" and "unknown" into context?

         I've written it before and I'll do it again. Good policies require good data. That's why we have a task force with experts on the panel to advise lawmakers.

         This is the current incidence curve. We shall see where we are in the next week or so.



0
0
0.000
14 comments
avatar

I have been reading stories about increased cases again lately. It all kind of tied back to that memorial weekend when people were starting to get out and about again. I don't know how accurate it is, but I think we still need to be very careful where and what we are doing.

0
0
0.000
avatar

People are acting as if their political views somehow protect them from this pandemic. lol

0
0
0.000
avatar

I've seen more Asians wear face masks in public

Wearing masks is such a no brainer, and such a low tech solution. It has been culturally acceptable in many Asian countries, I think especially since the first SARS outbreak. I'm waiting for parasols/umbrellas to become the norm here, also, as they are in many Asian countries. Another, low-tech, no brainer--better than chemical sunscreen for sure. I'd love to compare the skin cancer rates there, with the epidemic of skin cancer in the U.S.

0
0
0.000
avatar

Yeah, there seems to be a resistance in the US for people.

I mean, if you are the guy branding a beard, that would be annoying and the hair itself lessens the effectiveness of the masks.

But yeah, I'm pretty sure facial hair is not the reason.

0
0
0.000
avatar

I spray/comb my beard with a mixture of tea tree oil, rosemary oil, and other stuff... mixed with witch hazel and high prof hand sanitizer.

Beard is annoying, band is not busy, I broke my length record, and it's getting hotter... I'm not sure I will endure much longer.

0
0
0.000
avatar

In terms of masks, the problem is not the beard is dirty. The thing is that beard makes it harder for the mask to actually cover your face.

That’s why the hospital asks healthcare workers to be clean shaven.

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

Get a load of these comments:
https://twitter.com/tetrahedroseph/status/1271485282819338241?s=20

"patients with hemoglobin disorders such as sickle cell disease (SCD) or thalassemia are expected to be more severely affected by COVID‐19 due to their preexisting"

and check Kaz's other comments if you wanna see more: https://twitter.com/Kaz01801719?s=20

I wonder if Kaz is a bot?
I'm not.

0
0
0.000
avatar

The COVID-19 cases in the upcoming week or two should reflect the impact of the protests.

I am afraid of that, TBH...

0
0
0.000
avatar

It's gonna be interesting.

This year isn't even half way over yet. lol

0
0
0.000
avatar

More and more people are however surprised this is not already the case now... Here in France they are relaxing everything again, in a total disrespectful way as usual. For instance, kids are back to school, but they told the teachers at the same time they told the entire population: "look, you all have 7 days to change completely the way school works you have built during the last weeks". I am so upset about central administrations deciding without involving those on the field... pfff....

PS: this applies to universities as well...

0
0
0.000
avatar

They expected some sort of miraculous and instantaneous change. This won't end well.

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

At least at the school level, they seem to do it quite nicely. But I guess they are all pissed... at least they should be ;)

0
0
0.000