Reasons I think POB token is undervalued
I recently read the post from @madstacks about the price of POB being overvalued, and I want to bring up a few points about why I think its price is actually undervalued and may go up further by the end of the year.
Maximum Supply
Sometimes we compare values with other tribes that also had some increases in the beginning and then the price fell, or that started badly and then improved, in short, there are several examples to analyze. However, it must be kept in mind that the other tribes do not have a limited number of tokens that will be produced, unlike the POB that follows the BTC line, having a finite number of 21 million.
I know that this factor alone is not something that determines whether the price of something will rise or not, scarcity is in fact a value to be added to the sum, but not the only one, so we cannot ignore it and understand how it will influence the final result.
Currently, more than 1% of the maximum limit has already been produced, and this does have an important value in the short term, showing that people are going after more and more to get the token, either to increase their voting power or to sell for not believing in the project and just wanting to make extra money in the short term, or even to prevent the price from going up at the moment (it wouldn't be a very smart strategy at the moment, but I understand who thinks like that).
So we have the first point to be dealt with in this temporary undervaluation account, the amount of current and final currencies.
Serious business
Currently, from what I can see through my posts, comments and curatorship, there are just over 30 users who are loyal to the platform and want to see its growth, producing content, curating and even alerting users of acts they do not consider healthy for the company. community.
The adept users at the moment, are taking the community very seriously, and the production of tokens too. It is not interesting for the long term, for many coins to be in the hands of people who do not produce anything, and who just want to settle this balance right away to redeem money, throwing the value of the currency down there.
In this way, every day users create posts with ideas and methods on how to solve this problem, and many are already being put into practice. The community is adapting daily so that it is not just another tribe and can become something bigger. An easy example is LeoFinance, which currently has a higher token value than Hive.
In POB, the same can happen and our token ends up being worth more than Hive if we bring the correct fundamentals for this to happen, if we daily look for ways to evolve both the back-end and the front-end, making a more friendly environment for new users and healthy for those who are already in time, do not be discouraged.
Depth of purchase and sale orders
Each time the graph becomes more evident that people are more concerned with being able to place a purchase order to increase their POB balance than getting rid of the coins. The price has already stabilized this week with a difference of 0.2 being between 0.3 and 0.5, as we can see in LeoDex.
The price lower for those who want to accumulate more would be great, since there would be more tokens purchased, but there is still a great demand from people wanting to sell so that this happens in an easy way. since most users insist on keeping their coins in stake.
It also says a lot about the community. However, it is obvious that at the end of the month, a drop in price will happen, both for a possible correction that is now taking place and for users needing money to close their accounts and start May without owing anything to anyone.
Partially concluding
Partly, because I believe that there is still much to be done for me to be sure about everything I am saying and thus to know if the currency is in fact undervalued or just a false impression that I am having.
Among the factors that I presented, which are few I know, I believe that by the end of the year, the price will be at least $ 0.60, even less than Hive because I believe that this will also have an appreciation. And I believe that if a POB correction occurs, the price will not reach less than $ 0.15, due to the cash flow that has recently entered and the way that users who have a greater voting power are acting with the distribution of the token through of curatorships.
If I'm sure only time will tell, my bet is that the value is around $ 0.50 by the end of September. I hope I'm right, after all it is the month of my birthday and it would be nice if I could celebrate not only the date of my birth, but also a currency that I chose to insure being valued.
Until the next post, hugs.
Recentemente li a postagem do @madstacks sobre o preço do POB estar supervalorizado, e eu quero trazer alguns pontos sobre porque eu acho que na verdade seu preço estar subvalorizado e pode subir mais até o final do ano.
Máximo Supply
As vezes comparamos valores com outras tribos que também tiveram algumas altas no início e depois o preço caiu, ou que começaram mal e depois melhoraram, enfim, há diversos exemplo para se analisar. Porém há de se ater ao fato de que as outras tribos não possui um numero limitado de tokens que serão produzidos, diferentemente do POB que segue a linha do BTC tendo um número finito de 21 milhões.
Eu sei que apenas esse fator não é algo que determina se o preço de algo irá subir ou não, escassez é de fato sim um valor a ser adicionado na soma, porém não o único, desta maneira não podemos despreza-lo e sim entender como ele influenciará o resultado final.
Atualmente já foram produzidos mais de 1% do limite máximo, e isso tem sim um valor importante no curto prazo, mostrando que as pessoas estão indo atrás de conseguir cada vez mais o token, seja para aumentarem o seu poder de voto, seja para venderem por não acreditar no projeto e só querer fazer um dinheiro extra no curto prazo, ou até mesmo pra evitar que o preço suba no momento (não seria uma estratégia muito inteligente no momento, mas entendo quem pensa assim).
Então temos o primeiro ponto a se tratar nessa conta de subvalorização temporária, a quantidade de moedas atual e final.
Negócio sério
Atualmente pelo que eu consigo ver através das minhas postagens, comentários e curadoria, há pouco mais de 30 usuários que estão fiéis a plataforma e querem ver seu crescimento, produzindo conteúdos, realizando curadorias e até mesmo alertando usuários de atos que não consideram saudáveis para a comunidade.
Os usuários adeptos no momento, estão levando a comunidade muito a sério, e a produção de tokens também. Não é interessante para o longo prazo, muitas moedas estarem em mão de gente que não produz nada, e que só querem liquidar logo esse saldo para resgatar um dinheiro, jogando o valor da moeda lá para baixo.
Dessa maneira, todo dia usuários criam postagens com ideias e métodos de como resolver esse problema, e muitos já estão sendo postos em prática. A comunidade está se adaptando diariamente para que não seja apenas mais uma tribo e possa se tornar algo maior. Um fácil exemplo é a LeoFinance que atualmente possui um valor de token maior que o Hive.
No POB pode ocorrer o mesmo e nosso token acabar valendo mais que o Hive se trouxermos os fundamentos corretos para que isso aconteça, se diariamente buscarmos maneiras de evoluir tanto o back-end quando o front-end, tornando um ambiente mais amigável para novos usuários e saudável para os que já estão a tempo não desanimem.
Profundidade das ordens de compra e venda
Cada vez o gráfico fica mais evidente que as pessoas estão mais preocupadas em conseguir colocar uma ordem de compra para aumentarem seu saldo de POB do que em se livrar das moedas. O preço já se estabilizou essa semana com uma diferença de 0.2 estando entre 0.3 e 0.5, como podemos ver no LeoDex.
O preço abaixar para quem quer acumular mais seria ótimo, uma vez que teria mais tokens adquiridos, porém não há ainda uma demanda grande de pessoas querendo vender para que isso aconteça de maneira fácil.O preço está caminhando para uma alta e não quer parar, uma vez que a maioria dos usuários insistem em manter suas moedas em stake.
Isso também diz muito sobre a comunidade. Porém é obvio que ao fim do mês, uma queda no preço aconteça, tanto por uma possível correção que está tendo agora como por usuários precisando de uma grana para fechar as contas e começar Maio sem dever nada pra ninguém.
Concluindo parcialmente
Parcialmente, pois creio que ainda falta muito coisa para eu ter certeza sobre tudo o que estou dizendo e assim saber se de fato a moeda esta subvalorizada ou é apenas uma falsa impressão que estou tendo.
Dentre os fatores que apresentei, que são poucos eu sei, acredito que até o fim do ano, o preço esteja no mínimo a $0.60, ainda menos que o Hive pois acredito que esse também terá uma valorização. E creio que acaso ocorra uma correção no POB, o preço não irá chegar a menos de $0.15, devido ao fluxo de dinheiro que entrou recentemente e ao modo como os usuários que tem um maior poder de voto estão agindo para com a distribuição do token através das curadorias.
Se estou certo só o tempo dirá, minha aposta é que o valor esteja rondando os $0.50 até fim de Setembro. Espero que eu esteja certo, afinal é o mês do meu aniversário e seria legal que eu pudesse comemorar não só a data do meu nascimento, mas também de uma moeda que escolhi segurar sendo valorizada.
Até a próxima postagem, abraços.
I don't know very much about how tokens are valued and what causes the value to change, other than selling and buying. I would like to see the POB token and community gain value because I think the community has a good concept for hive blockchain content.
It is only up to us to create projects and concepts to add value to POB beyond the simple speculative buying and selling. We are working on this, you can help us with ideas, it would be great for the community.
I have often wondered what drives the prices of tribe tokens. Is it speculation on future value, or perhaps just the overwhelming desire to hold the tokens which creates demand?
I think all tribes should think about this, and think through what are some of the use cases for the coin, is there any real world benefits? outside of the enjoyment coming with engagement in the community (and this is a powerful value driver)
I strongly believe that it has to do with future value. However, each user has a goal and time for it.
About the difference it can make in the real world, it just depends on us. I have a project under construction, in which I try to take the POB rewards to artists with few resources, you can read it here. It will still be updated.
Well, there is one main thing that should be taken into consideration for the price at this moment. @richardcrill has been purchasing tokens consistently since the price was at 0.05 and below, so there has been a substantial buy wall in the order book at various price points. This has also been backed up with other moderate-sized buy walls at various prices, usually around 200-1000 POB (@trostparadox placed in an order for around 600 POB recently at 0.248). This is great to see since these guys are buying to stake and they're not putting any (or very little) liquidity back into the order book. It's also worth watching out for since these guys have a considerate advantage on token holdings early on and earn much larger curation rewards in relation to other holders. When governance starts and big liquid sell-offs start to appear it may become apparent that the community should have been asking more questions instead of sitting idle.
Alongside richardcrill's consistent buying at the top buying price, he is also picking up sell orders from people dropping in larger portions of liquidity. I noticed that he bought 800POB from @leprechaun the other day at 0.4.
Of course, there are other people trying to buy POB too which is causing a slowly increasing price due to the scarcity of the token right now (most are staking). With that being said, there are still consistent sales of curation rewards from people daily which is keeping the market active. I think it's a smart move by these sellers if they're wanting to sell a portion of their potential stake to diversify or protect themselves from a potential failure.
I've noticed richardcrill has a powerdown active for HIVE with around 500 hive being received per week. I don't know his intentions obviously, or know what the end goal is, but it will definitely be interesting to see how the market will change if/when he decides to back off from buying POB.
We are on a blockchain for anyone that has forgotten. We can see all transactions made by certain accounts. Instead of putting out half-arsed predictions or trying to throw together some technical analysis with no grounds, start following the bread crumbs.
https://he.dtools.dev/@richardcrill?symbol=POB
https://he.dtools.dev/@trostparadox?symbol=POB
https://he.dtools.dev/@leprechaun?symbol=POB
(shared since these guys are the top three major stakeholders of the platform, excluding @proofofbrainio since I'd imagine their intentions would be clearly for the long-term success of the platform, but even so, still keep an eye on that too)
https://he.dtools.dev/@proofofbrainio?symbol=POB
Well done, @calumam! Great to see someone really doing their homework. (I upvoted both the original post and your reply, but upvoted your reply a bit more, because you included context that was clearly missing from the original post). Combined, these two posts should be helpful to folks trying to figure some things out about POB.
I have been bullish on POB from day 1 (actually, about day 3 or so, since that's when I became aware of it). Part of that is explained here.
I plan to post my own analysis of the price potential of POB sometime in the not-so-distant future. But (ssshhhh), I plan to buy and stake more before I tell everyone my secrets ...
To your point about richardcrill, I actually stopped buying because he was using a marketmaker bot to consistently outbid me, which kept the price going higher and higher and higher without me getting many purchases executed. Then I checked the blockchain history and saw his bot settings; that allowed me to put multiple orders above him without him automatically outbidding me. But then he would adjust his settings to again stay in front of me. In the end, I kinda gave up on that cat-and-mouse game.
Your conclusion is apt, though. The current price of POB has been significantly impacted by the buying habits of richardcrill, with a little help from me.
Looking forward to it, sounds like it'll be a great read. I'm hoping more people start to look a bit deeper and ask more questions. The more that is shared and discussed will help the overall strength of POB.
I'd suspected that a couple of weeks ago, so I decided to bump the price to see if the buying spree would continue, which it did and then some. Then a few days ago I cleared the sell orders and purchased 5 POB for 5 HIVE, more for the reactions and to see who would show their faces in the order book, but also for potential exposure and to see if richardcrill would continue to buy as the price increased, and he has. It has shown the price point that some people with large amounts of liquid would sell for. Useful information for anyone following the market.
I stepped back from buying because I don't have that kind of liquidity lol. I'm just focusing on how to better improve community discussion now and starting to say it how it is in the hope that others follow suit.
Thanks for the encouraging words.
It is always new knowledge acquired when I read your comments @calumam. In fact, there were many points missing from my post that would be relevant for further analysis, unfortunately I was only able to put what was within my reach at the time. But in view of all the information you brought, I believe that as @trostparadox mentioned, your reply brought a lot of content for the post.
Thank you for always contributing by commenting.
You set them up for me and I'll try and knock them down bud. Healthy discussion and further adding to the topic is one of the best parts of these social platforms. Nice work with the post!
This was a great article. Thanks!
I’ll be interested to see how the value of the token performs over time. There are obviously some posters who are no t accumulating at all and dumping everything they earn yet the value has increased. Let’s see.
They are looking only at the short term, while we focus on the long term.
Um olhar macro sobre a realidade dos tokens, em especial, do POB.
Post muito interessante e que certamente tem o poder render um debate muito necessário para o crescimento do projeto / comunidade. Confesso que particularmente não posso mergulhar tão a fundo nessa discussão, mas pelo meu conhecimento limitado nesse assunto, eu concordo com os seus posicionamentos (principalmente sobre quem está se esforçando para fazer as coisas acontecerem a longo prazo, e não apenas para lucros imediatistas).
O meu conhecimento também é limitado, e acredito que possamos agregar cada um trazendo um pouco do seu e no fim conseguindo criar um consenso maior sobre determinado assunto. Creio que a Governança que será lançada irá tratar muito sobre isso. Pode ser um marco significativo pro POB.
Isso aê!
Nossas limitações não nos impedem de compartilhar nossos conhecimentos.
I believe that the low price is better for distribution. I did some calculations here and found out that if a person has 100 tokens, just doing curation in 47 days the person can double the stake, maybe more time because each day the value of the vote decreases.
I think I'm wrong, my vote fell 5% "in value after one day.
I haven't stopped to make that account yet, but I am keeping all of my rewards in stake.
I think it will be volatile in the next time and after this period we will see the price the market decide.
I agree, the time will say.
Sempre acho que esses posts são interessantes porque essa é uma área que eu não domino muito, então tento sempre ler sobre e ir fazendo minhas conclusões.
E muito bom também porque vai agregando muito nos comentários.
Valeu por postar meu caro!
E vamo que vamo!
Eu ainda sei pouco então sempre tento trazer essa reflexões, para que pessoas mais entendidas possam me passar um pensamento diferente ou agregador para que eu possa aprender mais.
Great post @vempromundo, though for me, i don't think the pob token is being undervalued especially by users of the pob tribe. Those likely to undervalue its worth are those who are merely not aware of the tribe's blue print, but with the persistent growth of pob token in the btc fashion (owing to the limited supply of 21million pob), i see users of the hive blockchain give more priority to the value of the pob token than some of the valued tribes tokens on the hive-engine. It's just a matter of time and consistently to buying, staking and keeping the tokenized tribe community running as usual.
I totally agree, we have to allow time, and not worry.
Thanks for the comments.
Well i am looking forward to see how things unfold. Seems interesting given the token price but more would be needed keep this momenteum. I guess ditching the current logo and probably different style interface.