Wither Splinterlands?

This past two-week season has been disastrous for Splinterlands -- or, it may be the opportunity new players are looking for.

Prices on Splinterlands cards have dropped over 21% in the past 14 days. They are now down 35% since the start of the year. If/when they start to move up again, maybe this is the best time for new players to get in AND make a good investment.

The problem is that Splinterlands is not friendly to new players. Even now, the cards required to play competitively at diamond level run about $5000. Players can certainly play at lower levels -- but the tactical options are *much* more limited and good play matters far less.

Splinterlands has recently had a good number of improvements (many for tournaments) -- but the vast majority have been directed towards the top-most tier of players (and lest you think this is sour grapes, I finished 31st last season and earned 43000 DEC in tournaments just yesterday). I am very excited about the next major enhancement of land -- but am really concerned that it will require even more money for new players to become competitive.

Numerous players have pointed out numerous ways in which new players could be encouraged but these suggestions have fallen on deaf ears.

Tournament and season ending rewards have remained ridiculously skewed to the top 3 or 4 players. 955 packs are awarded every two weeks and the top three players receive 225 of them. In one of Saturdays tournaments, the top 4 players received a total of 310,000 DEC. Players ranked 33-64 got a measly 200 DEC apiece and, of course, those below that got nothing.

Tournament prizes are ridiculous skewed with the higher league levels receiving a lot more. Tournaments allowing only gold cards have even better prizes with gold foil Alpha tournaments while having virtually no players due to the card entry cost. Last Monday's tournament had 43 players with 16 (over 1/3) receiving prizes of 2,000-6,000 DEC. The Monday before that, virtually the same 43 players got prizes ranging from 4,000-10,000 DEC. Compare that to today's bronze tournament with 282 players and less than a quarter winning prizes ranging from 100-2,200 DEC. And note that top league players are not barred from lower-level tourneys and, most often, suck up most of the prizes. I have posted about this before (as have other players) -- but our pleas have fallen on deaf ears.

Daily quest and per battle DEC rewards are just as skewed. Worse, the DEC/win average has been steadily dropping and is less than half of what it was at the beginning of the year.

Earlier this year, I made a number of suggestions including booster drafts that allow new players to play at any level (and gain cards at the same time) and various new ways to combine cards including forced growth that would allow players to get the tactical options of higher level play earlier while not devaluing higher level play (and also burning more cards which will then increase each card's value while still keeping the total amount required for top-level "forced growth" play well below the $5K required for regular top-level play). Instead, tremendous effort has been spent on "anytime" tournaments that still require substantial work (multiple rounds of pods, etc.) before they won't be tremendously luck based (given that one loss in 14 to 19 games can drop you 16 places).

I'm not going to drop Splinterlands -- but I am going to have to do a serious re-evaluation when land comes out. If that then requires a substantial investment to stay in the top-most levels, I probably will retire and suspect that many other players will as well. If it is implemented correctly, it could somewhat level the playing field for new players while not costing too much. If implemented incorrectly, it could be an expensive boondoggle that further increases the distance between the newbies and the elite.

Other than relentlessly driving up the value of gold alpha cards, the Splinterlands team has done very little to maintain -- much less increase -- the value of cards. When cards are dropping 35% in value over 6 months, it may be an awesome opportunity for investors -- but it is a disaster for those of us who have already spent the necessary money to be competitive (and potential newcomers will certainly take that into account and regard SPliterlands as a high risk investment). I don't know whether the lower prices may draw in more new players -- but I suspect that unless changes are made, what we are seeing is the beginning of the end for Splinterlands due to bad economic management.

It would also help if the team communicated more -- particularly about long-term plans, perticularly about how they intend to try to fix these problems. Cards prices are dropping because people are leaving the game -- not joining. Some of the current drop is undoubtedly due to many bot owners dumping their bot's collections (which, again, is a good thing for the upper tier of players who aren't competing with tireless bots for prizes -- but does very little for new players).

I used to regard Splinterlands as a really fun game that could also be a good investment. What I'm seeing now is a really fun, really expensive game. Splinterlands is a great game -- but nothing is safe from being leap-frogged. Unless the Splinterlands team takes off their blinders, they are making it easier and easier for someone to do so.

Next Colony was a disaster for many reasons but it's economic model (or lack thereof) didn't help. If Splinterlands fais due to its economic model as well, players may well take the hint and the uptake of new games will be that much more cautious -- which will then lead to a spiral of fewer and more expensive games. As a life-long gamer, I really hope that doesn't happen.