25 Days ago I wrote a post about the RSI-Monthly condition that has traditionally preceded or anticipated the End of the BULL Market and so, the start of the "painful BEAR" Market.
As I observed, the maximum Monthly RSI values reached in the top of, at least, the two last BULL MARKETS was of 96 as you can see in the monthly chart below.
From that chart we can also see that, actually there were two times on which RSI touched that "96-OVER-BOUGHT Condition" in both Bull cycles:
On April-2013 , corresponding to the completion of its WAVE 3 and reaching 260 USD as a top price and then on November-2013 with a top of 1197 USD for WAVE 5 (+344% from previous top):
The story repeated again on August-2017, top at 5138 USD and a few months after,by the end of December 2017, the top of WAVE 5 arrived, reaching 20000 USD (+276% from the previous top)
So, I am taking this 96 - OVER-BOUGHT condition almost as a rule here and, you know what?
BTC has not touched even 84... It may happen that neither the 3 WAVE of the Bull Cycle would be even finished yet, can you imagine?
From the past we should extract the following:
- 96 MONTHLY RSI is perhaps our SELLING condition, if we want to sell, of course... I would choose anything from 93 as an "EMERGENCY SIGNAL"
- This condition repeats twice in a Bull Cycle
- The difference in time between both repetitions of this condition varies from 4 to 7 months... I don't know what to think here but my guts tell me that perhaps this time, the difference between both repetitions would be shorter.
- BTC does not reached its top on this BULL Cycle.
- Important: plan to take profits on the first repetition and invest them again once WAVE 4 will be finished.
*Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.