HF21: The end of an erra ?

in #hfsurvival2 years ago

There are few reasons to be optimistic about HF21. A few bigger fish are communicating HF21 will be the best thing that ever happened to the platform, but with the social part of the platform, comments and discussions, pretty much being phased out by the fact that the curve and reward split changes weren't accompanied by a drop of the dust threshold, comments up votes are as good as dead. If people follow a simplistic economic incentive model, as many think people tent to do on this platform, we can also expect a flourishing bid bot economy ruled by bigger bots powered up by minnow and dolphin delegations as a result of the reward curve economics. And then there is the prospect of bigger and thus worse flag wars. Basically HF21 is a huge gamble that can go wrong on many fronts and will or has gone wrong in other ways. The markets have pretty much rejected HF21 already, so unless things go really really bad, STEEM will probably stay above 0.00001 BTC for a while at least. No sense in selling now. No sense in buying now either though. Without social interaction, the platform is and remains a great core network with blazing fast transactions and an amazing low cost for data intensive DApps. The market cap is currently at about 60M, and that seems about right for the core platform functionality it will still be providing after HF21 hits the chain. The social part though, the part that had massive potential to justify a market cap of 300M or more, that part is now behind us for the core STEEM economy. At least untill way after HF21 has set in and, if this plays out as I have been predicting, witnesses and Steemit inc start to realize how much they miscalculated.

But then, my predictions, while often close, tend to be more pessimistic than the way reality plays out. I predicted STEEM would be between 0.00001 and 0.000015 the day HF21 would hit due to market rejection when Steemit announced the EIP would be an actual part of HF21. With 18 more hours to go and STEEM at 0.0000176, this didn't turn out exactly as dramatic as my prediction, but in the end I wasn't off by much. So maybe I'm too pessimistic about more of the aspects of the EIP. Especially the impact of the failure to address dust threshold concerns, and my assesment that this failure will slowly kill of social interactions as people discover upvoting comments has become a waste of voting strength for all but orcas and whales.

So how to prepare for the worst and hope for the best?

For one, remembering HF20, we should, apart from the fundamental semi-intended long term disruption of HF21, we should prepare for some short term disruption as well. Make sure our voring capacity is almost exausted, maybe down to 20% or 30% when the hard fork hits. You can't vote if you cant transact for a while, so voting away up to 80% should buy us room for up to 4 days of severe disruption.

Secondly, start a full power down, just in case. If things go really bad for us small guys, maybe it will make sense to trade in that STEEM stake for some #creativecoin stake or some stake for some other social scot tribes that doesn't kill of social interaction for all but the largest fish. If things go well, you can always stop the power down. If things go badly, you might not be able to start a power down, so doing it now makes sense.

Thirdly, this is the moment witnesses are going to be showing us what they are made off. If thing go badly, removing your witness votes may not be possible. So instead, I just removed all of my witness votes and given how critical this particular HF is with respect to contingency work, I'm trying to keep my eyes open for what is happening as much as is visible for us from the outside, so I can do new votes after things stabilize and the real impact of the EIP becomes apart.

I really hope I am going to be all wrong about HF21 and everything will play out the way Steemit Inc gambles it will. If it doesn't, I hope these three actions will end up helping me be better prepared for the badness. Better prepared to start living in a post-social STEEM erra.

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yeah I am really disappointed they didn't update the dust level as well.

We will see what happens.

I do not know a lot about the financial side, I do know how most on-line social media is when it comes to trolls, down votes and asshats in communities. The free down votes are not going to do diddly squat for controlling the post reward pay-outs. They will how ever have a massive effect on the social side I believe. Prior to HF21, down votes cost to hand out, it did not stop the trollish activity of very many people. The use of down votes were rarely used for excessive rewards, they were used as agents of agenda control, if a large account did not like your thoughts, your ideas, your lifestyle, your opinion, then down votes were used as a means to silence those.

Voting on comments for me went out the door as soon as my vote value dropped below 4 cents. Most of my votes have always been at the 100/50/25% levels. 100% for people/projects I support, 50% for content I like and for comments I liked, and 25% for miscellaneous things, Things I found interesting, but was running low on vote power, those got the 25%. I never gave a comment a 100% vote that I can remember once my vote value went over the four cent threshold. When it dropped, comment voting dropped, and will stay gone until such time as I can give a real vote, That being said, I have purchased a lot of BEER tokens from @beerlover and when the bot and server are back I will be passing them out for awhile in lieu of votes on comments.

So it is a wait and see what will happen mode, and a prep for the worst mode.

"The markets have pretty much rejected HF21 already"

In what way? You mean the price has done exactly what 99% of other altcoins are doing right now?

Litecoin made a profit in the last 6 month:

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Steem didn't:

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For how long do we know what will be in HF21

End of an era but starting of a new era.