Visual Inflation

Not sure how you all feel, but I can surely see and feel inflation around me everywhere. Despite the way most economists seem to downplay inflation as either unimportant or transitory, it is surely something that concerns me over the long run. I think each of us experience it in different ways. My perspective, given my academic background, is a mathematical one. My income from my employer dependent position sees an ever reducing growth rate. Whereas my annual pay increase started between 3-5% years ago, it has now been reduced to 1-3%. This leads my concern because everything else seems to just in higher steps.

I may be contradicting my thought here as I know that labor costs are a significant part of inflation determination; but from a personal perspective, it is the net impact that I feel in my wallet. I saw gas collapse last year when I saw a gallon below $2 for a number of weeks. However, driving past gas stations these days demonstrate how commodities have rebounded as of late. What is interesting is that it is led by expectations of demand and not necessarily the demand. While demand has significantly rebounded from last year's lows, it is still below what it was at its peak. However, prices seem to be over those peaks! This could mean that they will be even higher when demand is fully established.

Trips to the supermarket over the last year have also made me experience this. Food is dramatically more expensive that it used to be. That cost has been exaggerated for my family as we have also relied on delivery services as a risk management tool for our health. However, it has come to the point that I prefer to take more risk to save these delivery fees because of the increasing costs. Healthcare is another pocket which seems ridiculous considering the amount of government funding they have received over the last year.

It all seems unsustainable for me personally. I believe that it is an unforeseen tax we all experience that is not taken into consideration in many conversations. Fortunately, prudent financial decisions and my professional career have enabled me to deal with this. However, I cannot see how this will not materially impact the millions not in the same position as me. While supply and demand factors will surely compensate in the future, the hole many consumers will experience will be a long term impact that is likely not considered by economists at this point.

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