Is this the long-awaited Alt season commencing for cryptocurrency?

Let me look into my crypto crystal ball of Technical Analysis. Well, that was quite a pump for the altcoins in the past 24 hours. While Bitcoin trended sideways, the top altcoins had a decent pump. Could this be the Alt season we have been waiting for?

It’s never certain what cryptocurrency is doing generally, but this recent pump in both dollar and Bitcoin value for the Alts has brought fresh optimism to the sector. The Bitcoin market cap dominance reached recent major highs over 70% but has since dropped as the Alts begin to awaken and show signs of life again. This is indeed good news for all the bag holders out there like me, who have been seeing their profits dwindle in recent months.

With ETH up a good 10-12% at one stage overnight, and the contentious XRP up around 13%, it looks like Alt season is here. Of course one swallow does not make a Spring, if you know the old analogy, so we shouldn’t get our hopes up to much but wait to see if prices and momentum maintain this nice “uptrend”.

Even USDT the Tether stable coin is up at $1.01 as of writing this, which in itself is quite an anomaly. Numerous of our favourite coins have gained so I won’t mention them all, but one real stellar performance came from Stellar, pun intended. Stellar Lumens is up 21% as of writing, which seems to be outperforming all the rest.

That being said, overall market cap for all crypto is still below the recent high we saw on 26 June, when Bitcoin and ETH peaked in their recent highs of this year’s bull run. Market cap will need to still add another $100 billion to return to that height. Still, it looks like a move in the right direction for the Alts.

Despite that, we need to watch Bitcoin closely now because it is also due to have a breakout, though we can’t be sure whether up or down. If down then it may take the Alts back down with it, so anything is possible in this uncertain territory. Overall this year though, it looks like the bull market is in and the long term trend is bullish. If this is indeed a revival of the altcoins beginning now, then it would be their long awaited time to also shine.

ETH has been climbing steadily for the past seven days, but if it drops in price below $207, it may suggest a bearish red candle on the daily and break that “uptrend”. I’m not concerned about XRP as it has a bad reputation in my opinion, of being a highly centralized bankers coin, so I don’t trade it or invest in it. ETH, on the other hand is a more reliable long term investment, as it is centrally involved in the cutting edge technology that is cryptocurrency in general.

The current Bitcoin price position just above $10 000 is also a critical resistance level reached in May 2018, so hopefully it will now hold as support and allow BTC to continue its “uptrend”.

If Bitcoin does drop though, I don’t expect it to go lower that $8 500 or so, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of this year’s bull run from the low of $3 100 to the peak at $14 000. This region of $8 500 is also a historic resistance level in the 2018 bear market, in late July 2018. As a result I expect it to now act as support, considering we have pushed above it so well. BTC may want to drop down to the 200 day EMA around $8 500 before pushing up again. BTC usually dips slightly before a major “uptrend” or breakout. He stoops to conquer.

It certainly is at a critical point now as price hovers around the 100 day EMA, even dropping slightly below it today. As these smaller daily and also 4 hourly EMAs converge, we can anticipate a sudden breakout in either direction.

It is the movement of BTC that will dictate the reactive moves of the Alts, as usual, although Alt season could throw in some curve balls and surprise us. Past history does not always determine future price movements. Nor does the tight correlation between BTC and the Alts have to play out like clockwork. These are all simply trends or possibilities and each season, although similar, has its own nuances.

The optimistic or bullish forecast would be that Bitcoin is about to breakout to the upside and so the Alts are anticipating this and making their pre-emptive moves. Bitcoin is about to follow. Remember it only took 90 days for Bitcoin to go from around $3k to $14k this year, so it would not be unusual if Bitcoin did something similar and made an attempt at the ATH of $20k by the end of this year. $20k BTC by 2020 anyone?