BTC - How much could bitcoin rally after its next halving?steemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  last month 

If history is any indication, bitcoin could rally a ton after its next halving

As most are likely aware by now, bitcoin's next block reward halving is set to take place on May 14th, 2020.

For those keeping track, that is now less than 4 months away.

Historically, bitcoin has performed very well both in the 12 months prior and the 12-18 months post halving events.

Given that we are likely seeing the pre-halving run up right now, what might we expect after the halving?

If we look back at the previous two halvings, we could end up seeing a massive rally.

One that could take bitcoin to almost unimaginable heights.

Though, not quite high enough to keep John McAfee from eating his manhood.

To the charts...

(Source: https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1218127798847578112)

After bitcoin's first halving, prices eventually peaked with around 13,378% (more or less) gains.

After bitcoin's second halving, prices eventually peaked with around 12,160% (more or less) gains.

Using that data, if the third having produced similar rates of return, somewhere between 13,000% and 12,000% gains, we could see bitcoin somewhere around $375k-$400k per coin.

Let that sink in a bit...

If this halving produces returns anything like the previous two, bitcoin will get up near $400k per coin!

You may need to sit down after thinking about that one...

Do I think this will actually happen?

Nope, not for one second.

Don't let my pessimism fool you though, I am still wildly bullish, just not THAT wildly bullish.

I think at some point the 'law of large numbers' will come into play and bitcoin gains will start slowing down.

In fact, I think the more likely trend seen above is the fact that the return's each halving were smaller.

Which means, I also expect returns from this third halving to be less than both the previous two.

Given that context, I see no reason that bitcoin can't eventually hit $100k within the next several years.

Crazy to think that a $100k bitcoin call makes me more conservative than most. :)

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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That thinking only applies if you don't take a look at the waves.
If 6400 turns out to be wave 2 of 1 of 3, we will see higher gains than ever before or at least the same sized percentage gains.
Just look at Tesla. The next bigger correction in Tesla could be the same wave that the 6400 low in BTC is...
If correct, Tesla could be worth 2k in 10 years. Sounds surreal right?

Anything is possible. :)

I wonder what would happen if there wont be a rise.

That would be a major issue for bitcoin investors... it would break just about every trend that has existed since bitcoin was created.

I'm with you there, mate. It's rational to be bullish with the current markets, but let's not get over-bullish. I certainly think we can set a new all-time high post-halving, so at least above $20,000 within 2020, or it may even go higher - think $30,000, $40,000, ...

Even with all the momentum that we have, along with expanding institutional support, I'm not sure if we can see $100k Bitcoin within 2020, but let's keep our fingers crossed... That said, in the following years, maybe sometime after 2022, $375k-$400k could be possible.

Yea I am thinking $100k by end of 2021 or beginning of 2022. I think we break $20k this year, but not sure how much higher beyond that this year.

Yep, that's my guess. I made a post analysing how high Bitcoin prices could go up to following the next Halving:
https://steempeak.com/bitcoin/@zacknorman97/how-high-can-we-go-can-bitcoin-get-to-usd100-000

I deduced a peak of around $144,000 sometime before end-March 2022. It's simple math on my part, and I imagine that $100,000 could be feasible by end-2021.

So, that's pretty spot on with your guess, and I do think we could break ATHs this year, maybe near Q3 2020.