BTC - Don't be concerned about the drop just yet...
Bitcoin has been showing signs of weakness, but I wouldn't be concerned just yet
After a stellar start to the year, bitcoin is finally seeing its first prolonged period of bearishness.
There are several factors driving this recent bearishness, most notably the risk-off environment hitting all risk assets as well as overbought conditions for bitcoin specifically.
The Dow has now been down 1,000 points on back to back days, though coming off those lows near the close both days, and markets globally have all been taking it on the chin these past several days.
Giving all kinds of signs that we are in a risk-off environment.
(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coronavirus-3-technical-reasons-why-bitcoin-price-broke-below-94k)
Given that, bitcoin is actually holding up fairly well...
Yes it was down 3% today, but that was the same as many stock markets globally, and usually when we have seen environments like this bitcoin often gets beaten up worse than the rest.
However, that is not the case recently, and that is something to take note of...
On a side note, it is interesting that bitcoin was behaving morel like a safe haven asset late last year, but is not behaving much more like a risky asset.
I think that the overall environment is different now, with this being more of a risk-off environment than we saw previously, combined with the fact that bitcoin was already at overbought levels.
It's always somewhat difficult to dial in exactly what bitcoin is... and it often changes.
From a safe haven asset to a risky speculative asset.
That being said...
This is pretty much what we would expect to see.
We had a golden cross several days back as you can be seen on that chart above.
Often when you first have that cross, there is near term top, which is very likely what we are seeing right now.
After some consolidation though, that becomes the best time to buy.
I think we are likely going to see that within the next several days to weeks.
Remember, historically, when bitcoin goes above its 200 day moving average it sees roughly 200% gains within the next 6 months. We already went through one of those months...
We are very likely coming up on a very good BTD moment in bitcoin.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
I'm more worried about the price of altcoins right now, wow most of there gains have been wiped out. It's so disheartening especially because I though we had left the bear market behind us finally. Crypto winter is back :(
Mee too. Altcoin is going down again. Yesterday STEEM was below $ 0.2
Bro! Steem is only $.175 now, BRUTAL! 😭
The start of Steem's tumble was self inflicted.
Thanks Doc, yes buy the incoming dip before the bull run coming up.
Overall though the global sentiment on all levels and in all sectors - finance, crypto, social, political, etc is very bearish with the coronavirus pandemic that they won't admit to. When china sneezes the whole world gets flu. So what happens when china gets corona? china slowdown will drag the entire economy and supplychain down into the next great depression. It looks like 1919 all over again.
Bitcoin did not behave well over 10K. I am moving against the herd here believing that the halving may be priced in now and 10.5 was it. Its early but this is the way litecoin behaved last summer and I have been watching to see if btc repeats. I have lightened the BTC load in case I am right with this. And I have had a sneaking suspicion for 4 months now that the halving will be underwhelming this go round. I will get interested in buying back at 8200 which I do expect either before or right after the halving date. Hope I am wrong and it moons with me or without me.
Wanted to say one more thing... All the charts, all the history, all the TA gets tossed when there is a black swan event. The Corona virus is a shaping up to be a black swan event, so going forward, the path ahead is largely a new one. BTC included
Yep, very good point. Black Swans trump everything else.
HODL......Even if the chart says SELL
Posted via Steemleo