Winter Bull Run: Canceled!

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stable coins balance.jpeg

I mean obviously, right?

The market is very 'sluggish', but is that a bad thing? What I call sluggish many others would call stable. Considering Bitcoin is hovering right around fair market value is a good thing. If it did this more often it would be far easier to get people on board with how valuable it is.


2013201420152016201720182019202020212022
$100$200$400$800$1600$3200$6400$12800$25600$51200


2019

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$3467$3733$4000$4267$4533$4800
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$5067$5333$5600$5867$6133$6400


2020

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$6933$7467$8000$8533$9067$9600
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$10133$10667$11200$11733$12267$12800

The average person these days seems to have the long-term memory of a goldfish. Bitcoin continues to double in value every single year but everyone focuses on the negative volatility instead of capitalizing on it. We are only one year out from the last bear market correction. Less than a year, really (January). Lower market cap coins like Steem have been caught in this correction phase for an entire extra year, leaving many investors such as myself disillusioned and annoyed.

Ironically, if Bitcoin had no volatility, and just continued to double in value every year, investors would notice those gains and Bitcoin would be volatile once again. Bitcoin will only stop being volatile when it absorbs the majority of the legacy economy's value and the establishment can no longer manipulate it with fiat. Given this exponential trajectory, it won't take long for that to happen; 20 years at most.

I am seriously considering taking a full time job at work just to capitalize on this moment. My expenses are very few and I find myself in a quite unique position to save every penny I generate in the form of an asset not controlled by any government agency or central bank. Before Bitcoin, this was never an option.

Never before have we been able to invest in an asset that doesn't just store value, but generate it exponentially at the same rate as technology itself. Everyone on the planet should be a millionaire, but the establishment will not allow that and keeps everyone enslaved via taxes, inflation, debt, and exploitative wages based on time rather than quality/quantity of work completed. Cryptocurrency is a return to true work ethic.

So when I see the price of Bitcoin at 7k and I calculate its fair market value at 6.4k, that's looking pretty good. I was expecting a winter bull run like we often see, but now it appears that all the speculation was based primarily on Bakkt. Now we've returned to the exponential x2 yearly curve, and that's fine. Anyone who thinks that doubling your money every year isn't enough needs to rethink their investing strategies.

Conclusion

The first year after a Bitcoin correction ends is traditionally slow, and we are seeing that now. I expect there will be some kind of pump starting in Jan/Feb for the halving hype, and I still expect a dump in early April due to taxes and a miner capitulation dump. I guess we'll see. No matter what happens, if this Moore's Law projection holds we'll all be sitting pretty at the end of this 4 year cycle (Q4 2021). Patience is a virtue I hear.



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I got my very own mini-bull run last month by purchasing a bunch of Steem @ 10c in late november :^)

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Whoop whoop! Make your own economy :)

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It's going to be interesting watching BTC in the next bull run because with $12,800 as the next marker it's either going to slowly keep creeping back to that number, or it's going to take off like a rocket and then pull back to either $12 or $25k.

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I appreciate your insights, any thoughts on ETH 2.0?

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ETH is a bit weird. I look forward to seeing where it goes.

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Looks like the price is slowly working it's way towards your predicted figure. Isn't this what everyone wanted who feared the worst that they missed out when the summer showed us a little bull run? It is only a matter of time but in my opinion, we're talking at least half a decade before average folks start cottoning on properly and by then, the landscape will look completely different.

STEEM looks like it will be around still in that time and we'll be glad we bought in when we did. I still think there will be a price drop for steem as disgruntled large stake holders sell off on exchanges since HF 21, Leaves room for folks like us with a spare bit of fiat to pick them up.

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