Go Home Bitcoin! You're Drunk!
I honestly don't know if I've ever seen Bitcoin do this before. Usually when we get the kind of volatility that we did on October 25 we wouldn't expect a slow decent downward. We would expect more volatile movements in one direction or another. Volatility breeds volatility.
Instead we are left in this situation where the market appears overwhelmingly bearish but we still haven't seen the trigger get pulled on a flash crash back to the $8000-$7500 range. Volumes are still low during this time of year where everyone is moving money around because of vacations, Christmas, taxes, Q4, and whatever else.
My prediction about Bitcoin crashing to $7500 was amazingly accurate, but also came very late in the month. Perhaps late November will surprise us in spite of these weird movements.
Black Friday is in exactly two weeks.
If Bitcoin isn't above 10k by the end of the month I'll will not be expecting any kind of bull run in December. At the same time, there isn't a lot of wiggle room to crash down to either. In my opinion $7500 is the absolute floor at this point. This is my main argument for a winter bull run in the first place.
Best day trade of the year?
Speaking of Black Friday... I think that this year on Christmas will be an excellent time to gamble on a day trade. I'm expecting rich kids to get Bitcoin in record numbers this year. Affluent youngins are punks so they'll dump the market on Christmas day and cash it out to their bank accounts. More on this in a few weeks after we see where the market has gone.
This prediction looks pretty good and in line with my thoughts no matter what happens this winter. It's even in line with my Moore's Law doubling theory.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
As the year comes to an end I've calculated the base value of Bitcoin over the 12 months of 2020. The stars seem to be aligning on this front. By the end of March the lowest Bitcoin should possibly be able to go is 8k. I strongly feel that there is going to be a hardcore Bitcoin bottom somewhere between February and March based on this information. We'll know for sure we've hit it if the doubling line gets touched. Here's to hoping for easy money. I'll be saving up until then.
Conclusion
I think a big question we have to ask ourselves is how we would be feeling right now if the price of Bitcoin hadn't spiked on October 25th. What if the price had slowly risen from $7500 to where it is currently? We'd probably think we were in a pretty good place right now. It's all a matter of relative perspective. That being said I currently have quite bearish sentiment in my gut at the moment. Again, as someone who seems to get it wrong more often than not, maybe this is a good thing, lol.
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The talk is starting to turn to "maybe next year" for bitcoin (and 2021) and "maybe never" for some alt coins, so yeah it may be a bull still chart wise, maybe, but sentiment wise it's getting mighty bearish out there again.
Haha, I know right... but then it's like...
Wait... Isn't that a good thing?
If everyone is bearish... and they are wrong, and Bitcoin spikes above 10k and everyone flips bullish... could get pretty crazy. It all depends on how much support we have at this level.
But it looked like we had support at 9k, then 8.7k, then 8.6k, and now we are at 8.45k... so everyone is just like fuck it we don't have support. At the same time I would have expected at least a couple whales to dump the market by now. I find this current state of affairs very very odd.
Yes, its frequently gets really light when everyone is saying its just too damn dark and never will be light again.
I agree, It is strange out there. Rallys just leak away. Its mostly really dull and bitcoin doesn't do dull well. But "I'm bored, might as well sell." can't explain the action either.
Does anyone keep track of the Federal governments Bitcoin wallets? Being the largest holders of Bitcoin would allow them to do wash trades, or the reverse which would suppress prices.