Bitcoin To Absorb Entire Legacy Economy
I've made this claim quite a few times already,
but I feel it deserves its own dedicated post.
Bitcoin is doubling in value every year. Crypto is the first asset ever to increase exponentially over such an extended period of time. I strongly believe it will continue to do so.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 |
Think it's impossible?
Yeah, well I thought it was impossible for technology to keep accelerating at the pace it has been over the last 50 years. Technology progresses at an exponential pace, and central banks can no longer propel all those gains to the top of the pyramid. Bitcoin is the foundational technology that stops the elite from generating wealth off the backs of the poor.
No more interest rates
No more quantitative easing
No more inflation
No more wave-slavery
No more debt-slavery
No more taxation by force.
Blockchain makes this all possible.
And what will happen when the bad actors are forced to play nicer?
Literally everybody wins.
Kinda like what happened with this last Steem hardfork,
but almost infinely more significant.
Extrapolation
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.8k | $25.6k | $51.2k | $102.4k | $204.8k | $409.6k | $819.2k |
These are the baseline levels.
Meaning Bitcoin could easily go x15 higher during any given bubble.
At what point does it absorb the legacy economy?
Well, I mean... at $1M Bitcoin the market cap is almost $20 Trillion.
Ten years after that would be a market cap of $20 Quadrillion.
So my guess is somewhere around year 2030.
My guess is that a Satoshi is going to be worth so much value that another Bitcoin fork will pop up to give Bitcoin even higher divisibility. 100M Satoshi per Bitcoin will not be enough. Of course the super rich people that got into Bitcoin early will resist this fork. At that point Bitcoin will be so elite that the elite will want to keep it that way. Also, it might not be necessary because of all the other chains available to the masses.
BITCOIN! JOIN US!
Bitcoin will eventually become the face of the elite and centralization itself. This is the nature of decentralization. Everything more centralized than Bitcoin gets broken up, while everything less centralized than Bitcoin will see the granddaddy crypto as the new enemy.
What about the non-legacy economy?
Now that's a very interesting question, because I think the new open-source economy being forged has even more potential value than absorbing the entire legacy system (by a huge margin). Of course Bitcoin is connect to this so the variables are hard to separate. It's likely worthy of its own post at another time.
Conclusion
This is not an opinion I've had for a very long time. When I first joined the cryptosphere, Bitcoin seemed quite boring and not worth my time. Now I see that the mechanics of Bitcoin are primed to absorb the lions share of every country and corporation on the planet.
At first, this was not the case, when Bitcoin stood alone it was not clear what it would do. However, once all the altcoins came in with their niches we see that Bitcoin stands alone when it comes to security and censorship resistance. This leaves it primed to be eventually taken over by the super rich. Ergo de facto, get in to Bitcoin now before all the super rich have joined; become one of the super rich. This is abundance technology.
ALL IN
Indeed, I am very all in at the moment.
However, I hope that this winter gives me a lot more wiggle room to increase my hedge fund.
Then trade to DAI and hope for a gigantic crash!
But BTC base value doubling is exponential..
Things are going to get very intense if Ethereum starts outperforming Bitcoin again.
BTC maximalists will internally bleed.. they already think btc will now just rise to 99% Dominance and stay there.. for at least decades
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Get in now before the super rich, become one of the super rich - I like that. :)
I am not so sure this will happen to the extent which you see it.
But, I do think it will certainly approach that (asymptotically, kinda like the number of BTC remaining to mine). I hope it does though. I just hope it waits long enough for me to get onto the bandwagon.
Unfortunately I was on the bandwagon long before most and got off---sigh :-( Little harder to get back on now that it is getting up to speed :-)
It is a very extreme viewpoint to be sure.
It could easily be interpreted as suspiciously over-bullish.
However, I see it as the only path forward. Central banks have had the monopoly for over 100 years on low innovation and high exploitation. Bitcoin is the only technology that can explode out of this cycle.
The banks can no longer quarantine and lockdown the economy when rampant corruption spirals it out of control. The next spiral will not be reigned in as everything begins to bleed into Bitcoin.
I’ve heard that some people have already executed sub-satoshi transactions on LN
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good to know
didnt think that was a thing
Hoping it all pans out in scenarios I can take advantage of with upswings and downswings to eventually get a decent value in my wallet. This all relies on the assumption that Coinbase won’t go and 1) steal everyone’s wallet values like other groups have 2) they don’t go bankrupt lol.
Nice to watch the swings, I wish I held out a little bit longer than I did. I dropped the remainder of my hedge at 8.2k, could’ve waited but you can never tell.
I was really surprised by the drop to $7500 coming in that late.
Wasn't surprised at all from the spike to 10k though.
In addition to some BTC that I have the private keys to, I have some GBTC (yuck) in a retirement account and am dabbling with BTCP Steem-Engine tokens.
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I read a nice tweet yesterday which made me think of this whole cryptoeconomy in a different way... What we are creating here are economies, it first starts as a third world economy, then it evolves into a second world economy, then first, then a modern economy and it will sooner or later evolve into the best economy that we've ever seen... And I do think this is right, BTC is going to absorb much of the current economy, but I do think it's not going to be alone, ecosystems /economies like ETH are going to evolve too, STEEM, EOS, etc... Instead of having the USD; EUR, Yen, etc... we will have a couple of cryptocurrencies ecosystems/economies with dapps and platorms on top of them. Ruled by no one and everyone, where everyone can be part of it...
I really want to see how this whole cryptospace is going to evolve in the future!
Bitcoin really does feed the rest of the projects, and I even believe that ETH will flip BTC one day...
However, (and I hate to measure this in USD) what if a country or corporation needs to send a billion dollars somewhere? Are they going to use anything but BTC to do that? Probably not.
On the other hand, what if the billion dollars was actually created on a smart-contract network? Then you'd be forced to use the currency that is the cash cow.
This is why I believe Bitcoin (or even POW in general) will turn into an "old-money" currency while smart-contract platforms will start creating massive value via network effect (new-money).
I view it less as creating economies and more as creating communities that have the possibility of scaling up better than a corporation (and perhaps even better than entire governments).
When you can scale trust the world opens up to endless possibilities. What if you could get a million people working together in harmony... working as hard as they could and everyone felt like they were being treated fairly and cared about. That kind of priceless resource could generate a kind of loyalty that humanity has never seen.