We don't have a lot of in-market experience with halving events.
Bitcoin has had two, with the third coming mid May.

Completion: 85.42810067%
Reward drop ETA: Thu, 14 May 2020 13:28:37 GMT

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After the halving event

• Bitcoin went from $12.25 (2012-11-28) to $1242 (2013-11-29)
• Bitcoin went from $652 (2016-07-09) to $19.5k (2017-12-18)

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We see that the first halving had much bigger gains (x101 vs x29),
but it also had a lot longer to ramp up (12 months vs 5 months).

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Timing these waves with the traditional summer and winter bull runs may be important going forward.

This is one reason I think the next Bitcoin bubble will be the end of 2020.
That's seven months after the halving.

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However, we can easily make the argument that this halving doesn't matter much.

The first halving cut the reward by 25 BTC.
Then 12.5 BTC.
Coming up: 6.25 BTC.

The vast majority of total Bitcoin has already been minted (86%), so there is a case to be made for inflation not affecting the market as much anymore.

Of course I think this is ridiculous. Bitcoin's inflation is created in exchange for pure energy and computing power. Creating Bitcoin inflation costs money. That downward selling pressure on the market will always exist, and it's getting cut in half soon. It's still a lot of liquidity, even at the 3rd halving.

So many people are holders at this point.

Bitcoin is a hedge against our broken economy.

The next halving might bring 100x gains,
or maybe 20x or 5x or 2x.
All of which are huge returns that no traditional investor would ever scoff at.

Conclusion

Theoretically, halving events provide less and less fundamental gain over time because the amount of inflation they are removing from the ecosystem get cut in half after every iteration. However, what happens in reality is often a much different story. There is no way to test these things. There are way too many variables in the market and dozens of fundamental gains that will all go into pumping the bags of Bitcoin. I'm going to continue to assume that Bitcoin will 2x each year on average until it proves otherwise.