Crypto Analysis | What's the Future of DEC?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

Dark Energy Crystals have seen tremendous growth this year

But with them being soft pegged at $0.001 can this stark deviation last much longer?

We saw the first major deviation in July of 2021 when prices went to $0.008 - an 8x increase. But that only the beginning with DEC reaching as high as $0.016! This run on DEC was mainly caused by their ability to count towards the SPS airdrop which is still ongoing and is going to last until summer of 2022. Now half way into this airdrop we see DEC at $0.005 again - a decline of 70% from the peak.

In this chart you can see price at the non-log scale which makes DEC's fractals more visible. I have marked 3 fractals in the ellipses. You can see that they all follow the main basic shape which you can see at the top left.

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Now let's look at the log chart and put in some trend lines. It always amazes me how more organized these charts become by just adding some very basic details:

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We can see that DEC is moving in an upward parallel channel which can be sectioned into different parts. There is a strong resistance in the middle of the channel. Below that there are more resistances coming from the peaks.

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The chart suggests to me that after a 70% correction there is room to the top side. Now we apply the fractal we identified earlier to this chart. The question now is: how will this fractal exactly play out? The answer: we don't know. However!, we can still expect its shape to play out in some way. Personally, I don't think that DEC will continue higher than the $0.016 it reached in October as it is not meant to operate at this level. But it is also unlikely that it will just go back to $0.001. It would therefore make sense for DEC to do something like seen in the chart above. This would mean that there would be some rebound to about 0.01 before ultimately going back to <0.005

It is also important to point out the almost perfect correlation with SPS. If you compare the peaks and troughs of both charts you can see how closely they move together. This then is another argument for a higher moving DEC price since SPS is very likely to now start its upward movement again.

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On a finishing note we should also acknowledge that DEC's inflation will be soon expanded by the introduction of the wild and modern format of splinterlands. This will of course put selling pressure on DEC. However, we also will see the general sale of the Chaos Legion packs start at the same time. I therefore think that this will for the beginning balance out this selling pressure as a lot of DEC will be burned to buy CL packs. Moreover, the SPS airdrop is still only half way completed, which means that DEC still holds a lot of value.

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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DEC is new to me @tobetada, but then I am very much a beginner who knows next to naught.
Thank you for the analysis. I do find it helpful and am amazed at the number of different kinds of cryptocurrencies on the market. Hopefully I make sense.

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DEC is part of Splinterlands, which is a game on Hive :)

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All these gaming coins if you look at the graphs are very similar, initial pump, dump, then pump, dump, and so on and on, at periods of time, and what I think happens at the end of the day is that all the crazy bots and users trying to exploit the game tokenomics and profits do create this crazy volatility, and I've seen this type of graphs on so many games and the dynamics of what happens in the background is always the same!

Imagine you find a good game that makes you profit in 1 hour, so in 2 hours you already did ROI and are now almost 100% up, now repeat this with hundreds of accounts, people go up to create even bots that manage hundreds of different accounts together and exploit the game like this, at times they directly interact with the smart contract without even getting through the website! So imagine one user is acting like 100s of new users actively buying the coin to create/buy the assets in game thus creating a mad buying pressure, normal people get FOMO they do not know what is really happening and they just buy lol this goes on till the top and we have the crazy pump and at the top the bots simply switch to selling all of the tokens exploited in the game with the many accounts and there is the mega dump! If this is repeatable then we see multiple ups and downs, when they finally finished exploiting the game they leave and the price remains dumped forever and many users probably already left the game and they just got fucked by the cryptoworld! What an exiting place LOL 🤣

Now I do not know if the same is happening with DEC, probably not, Splinterlands is all different and yes there are bots but I do not know how they behave, what I said above usually applies to any of the cryptogames on blockchains like WAX, BSC, MATIC, all the same shit in the end, it's beautiful when you find one and are in early so you can benefit from the initial pump, but usually they all go stale and not really funny nor profitable after the final dump... I'm excited to see how the P2E improves in the cryptosphere with all that is happening at the moment, meta, big money flowing into crypto, etc etc...

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yeah good points!

I guess I have decided for myself that if the fundamentals are there just wait and hodl. This is almost never a wrong advice as all successful projects go up in the long term even with dumps. Obviously, we don't know if a game will be successful, but Splinterlands has shown that it is and still has a lot of potential.

I definitely see DEC going back to the soft peg in the future as its main usecase (SPS airdrop) will soon end.

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