Crypto Analysis | New Thoughts on Bitcoin (Macro)

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If you have been following my posts on BTC for the last several months you are probably familiar with my macro outlook

I have so far argued that bitcoin and the whole crypto market is due for another bigger correction. My range was between 20-30k and I will once more post the chart that I have been expecting:

The main idea for this macro trend was that I identified this red channel (two thick trend lines) which was also evident for previous cycles. It generally bounced off the bottom before going into the last phase of the bull market. Another reason was time. Every cycle has been lengthening, so it seems to make sense to assume that this cycle will also be extended. This would put the top somewhere in the summer/fall of next year.

But the price action in the last few days has got me thinking. I expected a further correction, but this has so far not transpired.. Normally I would be patient and wait it out to see if this trend is really confirmed. While I am still doing that I think I have to lay out another scenario which is somewhat supported by the past cycles. It is a more bullish one compared to the chart above (although both would have bitcoin eventually moving upwards into 200k+).

This is the macro trend for bitcoin. Notice the red/orange channels that one can identify in each phase. Also notice the three blue trend lines that I have drawn in at the last phase of the bull cycle. Lastly, notice the time that has passed in each cycle from the halving event to the market top which is extending.

For me it is important to identify fractals which I think have a good predictive power. While there is a good argument that bitcoin's fractal can easily still go down to the 20-30ks area there is another one that is harder to catch and would explain the bullish movement of late.

Compare the two fractals in the ovals here which are both occuring just before the strong upward movement of the last two cycles. I will argue here that they are similar to the one we are just in. Have a look at the next chart.

Here we see the current market movement.The circled area here seems to be very similar to the two other ovals marked in the previous chart. My reasoning here is that we might just be at the moment before we have seen a strong upward movement which broke free of this orange/red channel.

If so, prices should go to 100k in a matter of weeks. I also drew in the three blue trend lines which could be a guide for prices to come. I have to say that it was somewhat more challenging to draw them into this chart because the strong upward impulse wave is still lacking (it is also the reason why I was skeptical of this kind of movement). But I think they should be very helpful in understanding the last phase (again, they might change in the coming weeks, if this scenario should be confirmed).

For this scenario to occur we would need a sustainable (increase in volume) breakout of the current price range breaking out of this orange/red channel. If so, I think the delayed time window should still hold. I would not expect the market to peak before early spring 2022 and at the latest in fall 2022. This is somewhat unusual in the sense that all previous cycles have topped out in winter. But there are always firsts!

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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