Crypto Analysis | Hive Stalling, But Macro Support!

Good day Hiveians!

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I have been waiting for Hive's next leg up

And while it has taken longer to transpire than what I had anticipated, I believe that we are still on track for it. So this is a heads up for anyone who is still waiting. The normal caveat of course is that any sort of black swan event would upend such a scenario (e.g., BTC breaking down to ~12k, some sort of problem with the next HF etc.). The weekly chart still has not really changed (which is a good thing):

Originally I thought that the impulse wave starting in June of this year would have enough momentum to tackle the horizontal orange line. It actually did when price went to $1, but the weekly chart shows how this was only a "fake out" and price was rejected perfectly at this resistance. It's always good to get a confirmation on the trend lines one is using, although in this case it meant that price was not going to go higher. This is why the next leg up has been stalled for several weeks. It will continue once this resistance now at about 60 cents will be broken. But first price has to bounce off of the blue support. It has held 3 times before on the weekly chart, so there is a good chance it will hold the fourth time. However, if it does not price would plunge. My whole idea is that Hive will remain in this ascending converging channel. So fingers crossed! On a more technical level it also seems reasonable to assume no bigger downward movement since Hive has already seen a 90% correction from the ATH!

Just like in July of 2021 price was "fighting" to break out of the resistances coming from the previous highs, which is an additional resistance.

These resistance lines are from the daily and weekly charts. This is always difficult for price to break out of. But look what happened after it id: price went parabolic. Of course we now have the additional resistance coming from the horizontal orange line, but I am optimistic that Hive should break out to the upside. Again, this scenario is dependent on BTC not breaking massively to the downside.

The similarities are quite obvious when comparing these fractals. The differences are that the daily and weekly resistances coming from the previous highs are converging for this time and that we have the horizontal resistance. Both make it harder for price to break these resistances, but I have to stress again that Hive has already seen a 90% correction and is still in the highlighted channel. For me this indicates that the chances for breaking out to higher highs is a greater probability. However, I want to be clear that everyone should do their own risk-reward analysis.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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