Crypto Analysis | Hive Lower Low?!

Good day Hiveians!

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So my last post didn't age too well

Just before the bigger crash (it is still small to the ones we have seen in the past), I argued that Hive will revisit macro support, but essentially not fall under it. Hive did revisit that support, but fell under it (!). The bearish thing, however, is that Hive made a lower low on some excahnges. This is very peculiar since Hive has tended to be rather well pegged to itself on the listed exchanges. But I have a theory that seems reasonable.

• Hive made a lower low on Binance and most of the other smaller exchanges. I believe this happened, since a big part of trading goes on at Mandala (which is linked to Binance by being connected to its cloud) which is about to close down. Users have until September 7th to move their funds off of the exchange. It makes sense that people are already doing that before that deadline. This could affect trading quite a bit since many could be cashing out or withdrawing funds which they otherwise would not have had. @edicted was such an example who cashed out some of his Hive there; how many other followed? It seems quite a few, since Hive had a much lower low on Binance than on other exchanges.

• But Hive did not make a lower low on Upbit. This is significant since the volume traded there for Hive is around 10x of that on Binance which is the second biggest exchange on Hive. In fact, when we look at volume, we can see that there was almost no trading when the correction happened for Hive! This is quite unusual, but explains why we didn't see a lower lo for Hive there. Traders simply did not want to sell Hive. While I am not sure for why that was the case, overall that is positive imo.

Let's have a look. On Upbit we only saw around a 8M trading volume during the dump and price stabilized at around 7% higher than the previous low:

On Binance and most other exchanges we instead saw a lower volume of course, but relatively speaking it was much, much higher than in previous price movements when comparing to Upbit. On Binance trading volume was at around 2M and it gets more obvious that there was selling pressure here when looking at the volume candles. On Upbit, you can barely see any increase in volume, but on Binance there is a clear peak.

Also notice that the shape of a sell off for Hive is very similar (black arrow). If so, we can expect Hive to actually reach even another lower low (except for on Upbit).

Conclusion

So what do we make of this? I suppose we will have to live with the ambiguity. Hive will have always made a lower low on most exchanges, but on Upbit it did not. The relevance of this of course is that a lower low is very bearish, and managing to stay above previous lows is if not always bullish, at least a sign that a downtrend has come to an end.

While Hive can of course always underperform, my gut tells me that sooner or later Hive will overcome these selling forces and break out of the macro resistances. These are not very far off and are actually in the high 30s. If they can be overcome, Hive will surely again be on an upward trajectory. But for now we have to accept that the "summer rally" was a dud. Like always, this can be a great time to buy into a project that you believe in or sell out if you think Hive's highs are over. It's for you to decide.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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