War Again

Alright, let's get straight to the point, because so much happened over the weekend that it's hard to keep up. We woke up to find the Middle East back on edge. U.S. strikes, the Strait of Hormuz shut down, missiles flying across half the region, and Trump threatening to "flatten" Iran.

And here's the craziest part. All of this is happening just days after we were talking about a ceasefire and a deal that was supposed to reopen the strait.

WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE WEEKEND

Let's take it step by step, because events unfolded fast.

It all began when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus flagged container vessel, caught fire after the attack and suffered severe damage to its engine room. It was unable to continue its voyage, and one crew member remains missing.

The U.S. response came almost immediately. On Saturday, President Trump ordered another round of strikes against Iran. And here's something worth noting. It was the third time in just one week that the United States had bombed Iranian targets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made the administration's position clear: "Iran made a bad choice. Now it's paying the price."

Iran responded by announcing that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed "until further notice." According to the Revolutionary Guards, "No vessel will be allowed to transit the strait."

As if that wasn't enough, neighboring countries also reported missile activity. Qatar intercepted ballistic missiles. Bahrain urged its citizens to seek shelter. Kuwait announced that it was dealing with "hostile aerial targets." Within just a few hours, the entire region was once again on the brink.

TRUMP AND THE SANCTIONS

This is where things became even more intense.

Trump posted a message on Truth Social that quickly made headlines around the world.

"One thousand missiles are armed and ready, targeted at Iran, with thousands more to follow."

He went on to threaten that he would "flatten and destroy" Iran.

You might be wondering, "Why is Trump so furious?"

According to Israel, which shared intelligence with the United States, Iran had been involved in a plot to assassinate Trump himself. And that's not all. During the funeral of Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, some mourners were seen carrying signs reading, "We will kill Trump."

Khamenei's son and designated successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, also vowed revenge.

"This revenge is what our nation demands, and it will certainly be carried out."

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iranian financier Ali Ansari, who is accused of managing a vast network of assets on behalf of Iran's leadership.

Trump also made one thing crystal clear:

"The ceasefire is OVER."

WHY THE CEASEFIRE COLLAPSED

Now comes the most important question.

How did we end up here again after reaching an agreement?

The short answer is that the agreement itself left too many unanswered questions.

On June 17, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pledged to make every possible effort to ensure the safe passage of ships and agreed not to impose transit fees for sixty days.

The problem?

The agreement never clearly defined which shipping routes would be used.

That's where everything fell apart.

Iran argues that vessels are entitled to safe passage only if they use a northern route through Iranian territorial waters.

The United States, however, continues to support a southern route along Oman's coastline under U.S. military protection.

That disagreement led Iran to attack three tankers using the southern route this week. Analysts described it as the biggest escalation since the conflict began.

Former State Department official David Goldwyn summed it up well.

"The memorandum simply kicked the problem down the road" instead of actually solving it.

The impact on energy markets was immediate.

Oil prices climbed more than 4% over the week, with U.S. crude trading around $71 per barrel and Brent crude just below $76. Even so, prices remain well below the previous highs of $122.

To put the disruption into perspective, only 5 to 8 million barrels of oil per day are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war?

Around 20 million barrels per day.

That's a massive decline.

Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister traveled to Oman for fresh talks.

There is also a new proposal on the table. France and the United Kingdom are reportedly examining an Omani plan that would allow transit fees in the Strait, provided they remain voluntary and receive the backing of the International Maritime Organization.

So yes, negotiations are still happening.

But at the very same time, missiles are still flying.