Iran Is Fooling Trump And Trump Is Trying To Fool His Own People

So, the United States and Iran are supposedly in a ceasefire. They signed an agreement. They shook hands.

And yet, they continue exchanging strikes almost every day. Ships are being attacked, aircraft are carrying out bombings, and Trump is warning that "Iran will no longer exist." And in the middle of all this chaos... oil prices are falling. Strange? Very.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

To understand where we are, we need to put the events in order. Just over a week ago, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding. The goal? A lasting peace that would finally end the conflict between the two countries.

So far, so good. But then things started to unravel.

On Thursday, a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, the Ever Lovely, was attacked by a drone off the coast of Oman. According to the United States, Iran was behind the attack. On Friday, the U.S. responded by striking Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, along with coastal radar installations. Trump called it a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire.

Then came Saturday. At 4:30 a.m. U.S. time, a drone struck the oil tanker M/T Kiku, sailing under the Panamanian flag and carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil. The U.S. response came immediately. On Sunday, American fighter jets struck ten Iranian targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

And Iran? It did not stand by. It launched strikes against U.S. targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait reported that its air defense systems were "intercepting hostile missiles and drones," while Bahrain described the attacks as a "blatant violation" of its sovereignty.

THE WAR OF WORDS

This is where things become even more interesting. Alongside the military strikes, there is another battle unfolding: the war of words.

Trump has not held back. "There may come a time when we can no longer be reasonable," he wrote on Truth Social. "And then the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!"

And this is not the first time. In April, he warned that "an entire civilization will die tonight." In May, he said that "there will be nothing left of Iran."

Iran responded in kind. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the United States of "always violating its commitments." Meanwhile, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, wrote that "the United States attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations, once again."

So what do we have? A ceasefire on paper, and a war in reality.

OIL IS FALLING

Now this is the part that seems counterintuitive.

We have fighting around the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping route. Normally, that would send oil prices soaring. Instead, they are falling.

By how much? Brent crude dropped 4.34% to $71.99 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude fell 3.74% to $69.23. More importantly, this is the first time WTI has closed below $70 since February 27, the eve of the war.

"So why is oil falling while there's still a war?" you might ask.

The answer is fairly simple. More and more tankers are leaving the Strait. And despite the attacks, commercial vessels continue to pass through. As a result, markets believe that, for now, global oil supplies are not being disrupted. That has eased fears and pushed prices lower.

Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization had begun preparing an evacuation plan for ships operating in the region. However, Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez temporarily suspended the plan while waiting to confirm that adequate security guarantees were in place.

As if that were not enough, another dispute has emerged over Iran's frozen assets. The United States says the funds will be used to purchase American agricultural products. Iran denies that claim.

At the same time, OPEC is showing signs of strain. The United Arab Emirates left the organization in May, and now Iraq is demanding a larger production quota, warning that it could also consider withdrawing.