European Commission Removes Greece From Macroeconomic Imbalances

For years in Greece, we kept hearing the word “supervision.” Bailouts, the troika, enhanced surveillance, macroeconomic imbalances. For sixteen whole years, Greece was under some form of monitoring. As if it were permanently in intensive care.

And today, the European Commission officially said, “We’re done. You’re out.”

Yes, you read that right. For the first time since the sovereign debt crisis erupted, the country is leaving the list.

END OF SUPERVISION

As part of the 2026 European Semester, the European Commission removed Greece from the category of countries with Macroeconomic Imbalances. To understand how significant this is, let’s remember the journey.

Bailout programs from 2010 to 2018, enhanced surveillance until 2022, “excessive” macroeconomic imbalances until 2024, “ordinary” imbalances last year, and now? Nothing. Full normality.

And why is this such a big deal?

Because the Commission explicitly says that the risks stemming from public and external debt have significantly declined. The old structural weaknesses are no longer considered a systemic threat.

And notice something. All of this is happening at a time when ten EU member states are under excessive deficit procedures. In other words, Greece, once considered the “problem student,” is moving ahead while others are entering supervision.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

And this is where things get even more interesting. Because this is not just rhetoric. It’s about numbers.

The Greek economy grew by 2.1% in 2025. For 2026, the Commission forecasts growth of 1.8%, while the Eurozone average is only 0.9%. In other words, we are growing at twice the pace of the rest.

On the fiscal side? A General Government surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.3% in 2024. And the most impressive part? This surplus was achieved while reducing social security contributions, increasing public sector wages, and introducing support measures for households.

Now let’s look at debt. From 154.2% of GDP in 2024, down to 146.1% in 2025, 140.7% in 2026, and 134.4% in 2027. In other words, public debt is projected to fall by almost 20 percentage points in just three years. The fastest debt reduction in Europe.

The Commission also recognizes the digital transformation of the Independent Authority for Public Revenue, the reduction of the VAT gap, the clean-up of bank balance sheets, and improvements in the labor market, with unemployment continuing to decline.

CONFIDENCE IS RISING

And here comes the second part. It’s not only the Commission saying this. The market is beginning to feel it as well.

According to the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), the Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 107.5 points in May from 105.8 in April. The improvement was driven mainly by Industry, Construction, and consumer confidence.

And what are households doing? They appear somewhat more optimistic about their own finances and about the country’s prospects in general. Intentions for major purchases have strengthened significantly, as has the willingness to save.

Of course, not everything is perfect. Greek consumers remain the most pessimistic in the entire EU. Inflationary pressures also persist, while uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire in the Middle East remains a critical factor. But the trend is gradually improving.

RECORD ACTIVITY ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE

And now for the third part. Right now, something remarkable is happening on the Athens Stock Exchange.

In just six months, listed companies are expected to raise more than €6 billion. To put that into perspective, the total amount raised during all of 2025 was €2.5 billion. That means more than double the amount in half the time. If this momentum continues, even the five-year record of €7.9 billion set in 2021 could be surpassed.

What changed? The Greek market joined the Euronext platform and was upgraded to developed market status. And the impact is already visible. PPC’s share capital increase attracted subscriptions exceeding €18 billion. Yes, €18 billion. As Euronext Athens CEO Yiannos Kontopoulos noted, this demonstrates that the market now has the “depth, maturity, and structure” to support transactions of this scale.

And there is more to come. Lamda Development with a €350 million bond issue, IDEAL Holdings with the listing of Attica Department Stores, ADMIE with a €1 billion capital increase. Even Safe Bulkers, a Wall Street-listed shipping company, has received approval for a dual listing in Athens.

But perhaps the most important question is who is providing the capital. Foreign investors accounted for 64.1% of trading activity in 2025, up from 50.8% in 2020. That is a level not seen since before the crisis. And consider this: according to Morgan Stanley, only 12% of European funds currently have exposure to Greece. In other words, there is still substantial room for new inflows.

Put simply? Major investors are voting in favor of Greece. Not with words. With their capital.