RE: Which are the best cards to buy for POWER - 01/19
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The whales will make controlled sales so as not to disrupt the prices, there will definitely be a drop in card prices as packs are opened but I don't think it will be any worse than when Untamed was released. We have many times the players we had then. I heard there are somewhere in the range of 1.5 million active Splinterlands accounts. So that would mean each account in theory gets 10 packs of cards to sell out all the packs. We know that's not likely to happen with all the packs that went to the whales. So 15 million amounts to 50 new cards per player. That's really not a huge amount of cards vs the number of players and the growth is continuing at amazing rates though it has slowed some recently. With Splinterlands entering into a new ad campaign growth will shoot up again. I think card values for both sales and rentals will have a bright future soon after the last Chaos Legion pack sells. In the short term scoop up the bargains while the prices are low, I know I am.
Unfortunately I was not around when Untamed was released so I can't compare.
According to https://dappradar.com/hive/games/splinterlands there are around 300K active daily users. This would scale up a bit, but I think we won't surpass 500K by much. So that is 30-50 packs/user around $90-$150 per user, but we have a lot of players who came here for a play2earn experience + bots, so I don't think that the packs would be sold out within the next months.
I'll be honest, I have also bought only 20 packs on Monday and feel a bit stretched out because of it. Still might buy a few more packs, if I earn some hive from blogs and on the market in the coming weeks.
I expect 2 big card opening frenzies after these 3 airdrops are revealed, and when all airdrops are revealed. These openings will bring down card prices again.
In the long run I hope that new users will find a liking in the game and stay with us. But due to the amount of cards, I believe that after the in-game packs are sold it will take a few months before enough new players accumulate, who will push up the demand for the prices again... unless a FOMO frenzy kicks in :)
That 300k is a 24hr snapshot. The 30-day snapshot show 600k unique wallet addresses. Not everyone plays of visits the site every day. Not the million user number I saw but then I wonder what the 60-day looks like, there are some that just invest and rent and don't really look at it that often, they just HODL long term. Prices will drop no doubt until . . . until they don't! Players, playability, and demand will determine which cards and when their value climbs, but if I have learned one thing about card collectibles (and nft's will be no different) the good ones always go up in price, sooner or later.