RE: Thought Experiment: Coinbase Goes Bankrupt
Coinbase has been absolute dogshit since they went public via Direct Listing. When I saw the listing price, I actually laughed out loud. I knew even then that it was all just speculation, nothing more. The insiders proceeded to dump the stock for the past 2 years.
If I had shorted the stock at open, I could have made BILLIONS of dollars, Like the CEO Brian Armstrong, the criminal that he is, has.
Anyone wanna ask WHAT he did to deserve making $10B? The answer: nothing. He's a criminal, Coinbase is a pile of shit, and I'm glad I never went near their operation.
When I read their last earnings report, I laughed out loud again. Their business model is almost completely dependent upon transaction fees. So, in bull markets, they made a TON of revenue, but in the bear, they can't even hold their heads above the water.
The dirty secret about Coinbase is their balance sheet, as you pointed out. ALL deposits to Coinbase is Coinbase's money, not the depositors. There is no such thing as FDIC insurance for crypto.
The mere fact that their profit margin is NEGATIVE (-4.79% for most recent quarter) should tell you all you need to know. Their entire business is as a centralized KYC-only cryptocurrency exchange, and they can't even make an economic profit from that. When BTC dumps back down to $3800, Coinbase will declare bankruptcy, steal all the money from their suckers (depositors) and then make off like the bandits they are.
From a balance sheet perspective, they have $5.69B in cash and $3.62B in debt. But, their debt-to-equity ratio is 62.26x. That's insane, that's an unhealthy financial services business. Their operating cashflow for the past 12 months is -$528M. They have almost been in the red by HALF A BILLION DOLLARS, in a year. Their business will crash, just wait
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