my analysis for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies this month of November

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(Edited)

The current situation of Bitcoin in 2023 is characterized by several notable trends and developments. Below are the key points based on different sources:

Price Performance:

Bitcoin recently hit a price of $35,000, marking its highest point in 16 months. This increase in price was also reflected in other cryptocurrencies such as Ether, which reached its highest price since August​1​.
Despite the ups and downs, Bitcoin has maintained a strong position after the mining ban in China, showing its resilience​2​.

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ETF speculation:

There is growing speculation about the imminent approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which could allow previously reluctant investors access to cryptocurrencies at through the stock market, introducing a new wave of capital into the sector​3​.
Bitcoin Production and Mining:

In August 2023, Marathon Digital Holdings produced 1,072 BTC, bringing the total to 7,368 BTC produced so far this year​4​.
CleanSpark Inc. announced that in October 2023 they mined 633 BTC, bringing their total BTC holdings to 2,311. BTC sales in October were equivalent to revenues of approximately $16 million​5​.
Market Forecasts:

Some analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could fluctuate between $10,000 and $250,000, suggesting that the institutional infrastructure for investing in digital assets is developing, which could be ready along with regulations, and that a real bull market is more likely. occur in 2024​6​.
Macro-economic factors:

Inflation is considered a key factor in the price of Bitcoin in 2023, and some believe that this year could precede a big change in the cryptocurrency market​7​.
Cryptocurrency Market Development:

The broader cryptocurrency market is expected to see continued growth and development, with the institutional infrastructure for investing in digital assets developing​6​.
These trends and developments indicate a dynamic phase in the evolution of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general.

my technical analysis:

BTCUSD_2023-11-02_14-14-27.png

Bitcoin has recently shown remarkable performance by breaking through the key resistance of $35,000, reaching a peak in the $35,964 area. However, it failed to stay above this resistance and retreated until it found support at $34,300.

This behavior can be influenced by several fundamental factors:

FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) related to ETFs: Anticipation around a possible ETF on BlackRock has created a speculative environment that could be driving the price higher.

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Anticipated halving for 2024: Rumors and expectations about the next halving in 2024 could be influencing the perception of scarcity and, therefore, the value of Bitcoin.

From a technical point of view, there are indicators that suggest caution:

Overbought RSI: Bitcoin has been in the overbought zone on the RSI for 15 days, breaking above the 80 level. This may indicate possible temporary overvaluation and a potential short-term correction.

Multiple Divergences: Divergences in the RSI have been observed at various times, which is frequently a sign of reversal.

With these factors in mind, two possible scenarios are identified:

Downside Correction: An imminent correction could take Bitcoin towards the $30,000 level.

Bullish momentum: If it overcomes current resistances, Bitcoin could seek the $38,000 area.

It is recommended to closely monitor these levels and be attentive to news or fundamental events that could influence the price.



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