Normies Are Getting Back into Crypto | Are You Ready for the Next Bull Run

It's always a fun time in this industry when people start getting back into crypto. The cycle is starting to mature as we head toward the next bull market. Obviously this is all my opinion... nobody knows what the future holds. In my opinion, we're on the cusp of a massive bull run that will be catalyzed by Bitcoin Spot ETFs getting approved, seeing massive adoption and TradFi players jumping in hands over feet to get whatever they can scoop up.

I was at the gym yesterday doing my typical lift and then sauna afterwards. In the sauna, I heard 4 different people talk about crypto. They obviously talked about Altcoins but one mentioned that he was "loading his bags" because the Bitcoin halvening was coming in March. That's pretty amazing to hear.

I talked to them a bit and realized that these are all normies. They got in during the 2021 bull run and they experienced only the peak of crypto. Then, they saw their bags diminish in value and lost faith. Once again, they have returned to crypto looking for some gains.

I've been in this industry for almost 9 years now. I've seen so many cycles play out. These cycles all have some similarities. One of the similarities is that when you're in the middle of the cycle, you never know where exactly things are at. Right now, I still feel like we're in the end of the bear market, pre-bull market. Some indicators help guide me in that thinking but due to the nature of being in the middle of the storm, I can't tell where one part ends and the other begins.

Things will become increasingly clear as hindsight grows. Hindsight is 20/20 for a reason. We can't see all that clearly when we are in the middle of it.

ETFs Galore

We all know that Bitcoin ETFs are the craze. Everyone and their mother are watching what happens next. We've got the biggest and most influential financial players in the world like Blackrock who have submitted ETF Applications. Do you really think they would go through the trouble of doing that without already knowing at the outset that they would get approval?

Grayscale is one of the most likely candidates as well in my opinion. I see Blackrock and Grayscale leading the pack. Obviously there are others in the mix like Ark Invest and Fidelity that have a lot of pull, but Blackrock has the enormous size and control over the global politics/financial spectrum and Grayscale has been inundated, regulated and involved with Bitcoin while being regulated since 2020.

Grayscale is further along than everyone else in my opinion because the trust is already established, operational and has been regulated for a while. They filed an S-3 today which is one more step forward for them. This step also shows that they are a bit ahead of everyone else, since they satisfy certain requirements in the ETF approval process from years prior.

Blackrock is still my top candidate for obvious reasons. That being said - and as I stated in Today's Crypto Daily Podcast - I believe all ~8 ETF applications will get approved simultaneously.

If the SEC doesn't approve them all simultaneously, I could see them getting into trouble for tampering with the market. All these ETF Applications are essentially identical. The only reason(s) to approve one over the others is if there is tampering going on behind-the-scenes. But the government/largest financial institutions would never tamper with the markets... amirite?

ETFs getting approved will be one of the most bullish (probably, THE most bullish) events in crypto's history. It marks the beginning of mass adoption as TradFi players, pension funds, institutional investors have a "legit" way to invest in Bitcoin through the rails of the stock market.

FTX Trial Showing Mismanagement Even Under Regulation

The FTX Trial is ongoing and while it is a bad mark on the name of Crypto, I think as more info that comes to light, the view of crypto actually is removed from the narrative.

Crypto wasn't what enabled FTX to happen. Poor regulation is what enabled it to happen. FTX was in bed with politicians. An American founded it. His parents are literally regulators.

Proper regulation, oversight and accounting could have prevented FTX. It has nothing to do with Crypto itself.

As we often say in crypto when people accuse Bitcoin/Crypto of being "money laundering" - the biggest form of money laundering happens through USD Cash. Any bad actor can use an agnostic tool for good or bad.

Cash isn't good or bad.
Bitcoin isn't good or bad.

People are good or bad. They wield the tools how they wield them. Regulators are in place to prevent bad people from hurting good people with the agnostic tools that exist in the world.

What's Next?

We've got the halvening coming on April 24th, 2024. We have ETF approvals hitting hard deadlines around that exact same timeframe.

It's almost like these big TradFi players have timed this. Why did they launch ETF applications when they did? Do you think this is all a coincidence? It certainly can be but my childhood of watching NCIS and detective shows tells me not to believe in coincidence.

While all of this plays out, we're also looming on the edge of a cliff. We have a huge recession - possibly one of the worst in decades - right in front of us.

If you talk to the right people - low-middle class, business owners, etc. - then you'll hear about how hard it is right now.

It's hard to afford a new house or a new car. It's hard to go to the grocery store and buy the same amount of food you used to buy. It's hard to shop in general.

Everything is expensive. Interest rates have skyrocketed. The recession is already here.

The question is: when will the real ball drop? When will we see unemployment at scale? When will we see people struggling to survive on a day-to-day basis (more so than they are already).

Right now, consumer debt is climbing like nobody's business... soon, nobody will be in business. It's nuts.

So while this big Bitcoin cycle is playing out and I believe the price will skyrocket, I also see a global economic enviornment that continues to degrade. Wars are breaking out. The U.S. Debt bubble is growing exponentially... people are literally tracking it on a daily basis.

The world is entering a strange time. I don't know what happens tomorrow. For now, I keep stacking sats and waiting for the world to end.

Just kidding, but I am stacking sats. I believe the world is starting to understand the state of the global economy. I believe that Bitcoin is going to become the world's reserve currency as people look to de-dollarize. I don't necessarily want all of this to happen, but I believe it will happen.

There will likely be a lot of struggling between now and then. I'm sorry to leave this on a grim outlook. I think there is a lot of positive to focus on in terms of Bitcoin adoption and bringing the masses but the negatives of a deep recession can't be overlooked. People are losing their houses and struggling to pay for groceries. The FED will have to step in at some point, just like they did in 2008. That's bearish for lifestyle but bullish for Bitcoin.

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