RE: Splinterlands | Total Calculated Market Cap Of All Assets!
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Don't forget RUNI!
I always like your level headed approach to writing about the game and economy.
I don't think there will ever be a time when the team dumps DEC on the market in a big way. If everything works as intended they should just keep "selling it" off as people use credits.
once the entire Spells and Items narrative comes to an end, a new use case for land will need to be found to keep the ball rolling.
I'm curious what you mean here? I expected this would always just be a thing. I haven't read or heard anything that would indicate that spells and items would be temporary.
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I knew I forgot something, Runis indeed aren't calculated into the cards and add some extra millions to the total.
At some point I assume there will be enough spells and items minted and in circulation which either will decrease the value of land a lot or demand a new use case for Land. It's pretty much how it always goes. They created DEC which helped adoption and was overprinted to a point where there was so much of it that it dropped a lot of value and was unsustainable. To fix this SPS was created as a new token, same with reward cards, there were so many of them that they became soulbound. SPS will be the same, once that goes out of print years from now something else will need to be invested to keep the rewards going. The bucket is always kicked further down the line which works as long as enough new players come into the ecosystem. In each cycle this becomes harder and harder to do and I fear the next time there is adoption with many new players coming in will create a real peak that will be hard to top later down the line.
It remains interesting to see where it's all going and I'm still quite positive on the next couple of years even though I'm starting to slowly scale out from here.
Yeah, they do have a history of getting excited and overdoing everything. They are slowly coming to their senses in the bear market and have done a lot to tame it down. My hope is that they've learned a few lessons in how not to flood the market but Aggy, in a bull market, could easily lose sight of what they learned and go full fomo.
I maintain most of the damage done to the market in this game had more to do with the team's actions than it did the crypto bear market. Not to say we're immune here but there is no justification for how badly they screwed up the supply.
I am more optimistic about SPS but only if the community comes to their senses. The game should be self sustaining with SPS if it can be recycled back to the DAO and the DAO in turn can pay out the rewards. But, in order for that to happen, we need to be paying into the DAO in sustainable ways. We need market activity and game play that already happens to fund the DAO — not special minisets. Over time the amount of rewards (in absolute SPS terms) will have to decrease BUT the value of SPS in fiat terms should go up and even it out.
As it is, Splinterlands as "play to earn" is a broken concept. The only way it currently works is if there's more new players and uses for assets than new assets being printed. But because Splinterlands has a cost to run, for every dollar that comes into the ecosystem, there's probably only .70 or 80 cents that can be extracted by players. I think most players believe they can put $1 in and pull out $1.50 (or whatever) because play to earn is magic.
The elements that will change this and make play to earn work (as far as I can see) are:
Sponsorships and advertisers monetizing asset of time and attention players give to this game. It will add rewards which aren't printed in the game, so not inflationary.
Fun elements players will spend on that don't give an expectation of extracting value with later
Items in game that don't increase the rewards going out but help players get a bigger slice of whats already going out (they are doing a lot of this now)
Burning one asset to create another so overall inflation is better controlled (like soulbound cards) I want to see every new tradable asset be created by burning DEC. SPS becomes the material all new assets are built from in a roundabout way
Expanding the ecosystem into new games and platforms like GLS where we get assets unrelated to splinterlands for holding Splinterlands assets
Charging outside businesses for use of the Splinterlands platform if they generate a profit from it
It seems like they are moving toward most of this. If they do it right, we won't need the next big thing to take over for SPS beccause value will be coming into, and being created by the existence of the platform beyond just Splinterlands players spending.