RE: Ray Dalio's Principles For Dealing With The Changing World Order
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Too many wars and two much corruption with any competition for global leadership. I think world would be a better place if every country had say and United Nations actually worked. One country or union of countries controlling the global financial system wouldn't be fair for the rest of the world. That's why a decentralized solution where no single country or group of them is in control, may serve everybody better. Bitcoin can be that solution. It doesn't have to be fast. Being scarce is a good thing. Also, every bitcoin has 100 million Satoshis.
I agree if USD were to lose its status as global reserve currency, Euro will have a better chance in replacing it. The problem is, it is just the same thing and doesn't offer anything new.
I agree that decentralization of power is desirable, but I think it's important to be aware of all the dangers it's fraught with, and the safe guards that would be needed for smaller self-governed entities (that mostly doesn't tear each others guts out) to be the norm. With a more divided power balance, the chances of voilent conflict drastically increases – which is pretty dangerous with stuff like nukes being a thing.
That being said, I don't see scarcity as a problem for BTC being a world reserve currency either – nation states not being able to indiscriminately print it is actually one of it's best selling points, and a way to break the wheel in regards to debt cycles.
Neither do I see the speed of it being a problem – buying coffee isn't exactly what a state is looking for in a reserve currency (that said, buying coffee works just fine with a 2nd layer solution like the lightning network).
When it comes to power intensivity, the USD actually requires immensely larger power consumption to operate, and BTC also scales really well in that regard (doesn't really require increased power input, even if the market cap grows drastically).
I would be more worried about stuff like massive solar winds knocking out (parts of) the grid, and quantum computers breaking sha-256 (as far as I understand, that would mostly affect mining – but that sounds like a huge danger for the security of the network as well). However, those are probably because I don't know enough about it, and as such are fears based more on my ignorance, than actually being well founded.