No more BUSD: CUB IDO Clarifications
Judging from my last post on the subject, previous CUB bulls are now totally burnt out on CUB.
Nobody wants to hear it anymore.
Yeah, well... too bad!
This market sentiment is a perfect blood-in-the-streets moment. I always get bullish when the diehards start losing faith. How else would I have acquired over 100k Hive back in December when Hive was scraping rock bottom at 10-15 cents while Bitcoin was going x4? In crypto, you only have to make one really good move for it to make up for a dozen bad ones. This is a very forgiving landscape when zoomed out over long time periods.
In any case.
CUB is back at rock-bottom levels. 50 cents has proven to be as low as it goes for a while now. And yet, no one is talking about buying the dip. No one is exiting the LP and going long in the den (probably for the best). Everyone is burnt out and stuck in a holding pattern.
What does "diamond hands" mean to you?
Most people like to say they have diamond hands while the price is going up and then they lose their minds when the price crashes 50%. Diamond hands are a two way street, to be sure.
For me it's more about just holding.
It's about making measured small bets that are essentially guaranteed to make money and support the network in the long run. It's about DCA when you turn bearish and DCA when you turn bullish. Small moves add up to big gains over time. This is why my Venti Trading System is so important going forward.
I have noticed that when I trade emotionally I get it wrong like 95% of the time. What amazing accuracy! When I balance that trading strategy out with small 5% incremental bets it becomes exponentially easier to maintain balanced positions and not go on tilt. Selling 5% and then the price going up is not a big deal. Buying 5% and the price going down is not a big deal: just buy 5% more. It's when we decide to move all in/out thinking we have some kind of magical edge that the world comes crashing down around us.
Wasn't this supposed to be about CUB IDOs?
After sucking up all the stacked up liquidity in the den/kingdom, the first IDO crashed the price of CUB and created a wholly anticlimactic scenario. Changes have been made to avoid this by no longer pairing the liquidity to BUSD. It will now be paired to CUB. This has some interesting ramifications.
Now, the best thing to do here would be to not pair it to CUB, but rather to pair it to a stable coin collateralized by CUB. I called this non-existent thought-experiment token SAV (Savanna) in a post a while back. If we could pair IDOs to SAV then the supply shock to CUB would be even greater than a CUB pairing, because SAV would be collateralized by more than 100% CUB.
Unfortunately SAV does not exist, and maybe that's for the best at this point. Adding CDP (collateralized debt position smart contracts) tech to the protocol relies on oracles that can get hacked, and EVM networks are riddled with blackhats on a worldwide scale.
So here's the crazy thing about eliminating BUSD.
By pairing the initial liquidity to CUB instead of BUSD, half of the IDO funding gets burned as usual, but the other half is locked as CUB in a new liquidity pool. This creates two possible scenarios after the new token launches:
- The IDO does poorly and new tokens are dumped on the market, extracting CUB from the new liquidity pool and putting a little downward pressure on the token price.
- The IDO does well and even more CUB gets added to the new liquidity pool due to arbitrage. The better the new token does the more CUB will forever be locked in an LP that we don't even have to incentivize with inflationary yields.
Both of these outcomes are superior to a BUSD pairing, where the only party who benefits in that scenario is Binance itself, being the entity in charge of stabilizing their own pegged USD token. Even in the worst-case scenario (rug-pull) where all the CUB is drained from the new LP: this is exactly the same outcome as using BUSD.
The first IDO sucked up all the FOMO and speculation of a big CUB burn, but the price went down and disappointed most users. Now we are back at 50 cent support. No more speculation. Only the fundamental gain of burning millions of CUB can boost the price at this point: and it will.
Nobody cares! The FOMO is burnt out and there isn't a single CUB bull out there with big enough bags to speculate on what comes next. The next IDO is likely going to burn more CUB than the first IDO and all the deposit fee burns combined. On top of this 'fact', 100% of the value raised will be CUB, so it will be impossible that the next IDO would drop the price. Honestly even if it was still paired to BUSD it probably wouldn't drop the price, so this statement gets exponentially stronger when we remove twice as much as planned.
But again, nobody wants to hear it. Everyone is already all in. No one can "buy the dip" because that's already happened a dozen times over. This community is tapped out and waiting for fundamentals to deliver rather than speculating on them in advance. This is a unique situation that doesn't happen very often, and I intend to keep my eyes open and profit from it when I see the signal.
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