Instability Dump Achieved!

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bartsimpsoncrash.jpg

It's no coincidence that I wrote about market stability just two days ago. It was pretty obvious this was going to happen soon™.

https://leofinance.io/@edicted/market-stability

Now that we are at $56k with zero signs of weakness, the chance of bouncing off $60k and crashing all the way to $42k is pretty low in my opinion. I believe the market has to get scary and unstable again before we see another dump. I'm now targeting $70k minimum on that front. A 30% retrace from there would be $49k, so I expect $50k unit-bias to hold strong over the next few months.

Time to refactor!

Now that the market has dumped we have a new anchor and analysis point to parse. What do we see?

t1.png

We had the exact same flash-crash this morning as we did on January 3rd when I started flipping out the entire month. The only thing different this time around is that I'm not going to lose my shit. Seriously though the percentages work out perfectly.

Proportionally these two dumps are exactly the same.
  • 27.9k / 34.6k = 0.806
  • 47k / 58k = 0.81

Both of these flash-crashes are essentially 20% dumps with quick recoveries. The sharks are using this extra volume to load up fat as the bears panic sell at all time highs again.

Don't believe me?

Just rewind back to January 3rd...

t2.png

Exactly...

So where do we go from here? If we repeat the same pattern we'll make a 50% gain from the lows of the dump. What a coincidence that this number 47k x 1.5 is pretty much $70k.

As predicted, $70k here we come.

Or maybe even $70.5k if we are being exact. Same difference. Again, the 30% retrace from there pretty much takes us back to $50k unit bias. Bull market stronk.

Conclusion

The mega bubble year of 2021 has yet to disappoint. If we had been telling people back in September that Bitcoin would be trading above $50k in a few months hardly anyone would have believed it. Here we are, and now those same people are greedy as hell just expecting more more more. People never change.

If these timelines play out again, we have another insane week of bullish action ahead of us up to $70k before the bears get baited into dumping again. Should we try to trade this scenario and make some money? That's wholly up to you. Personally the Diamond HODLER is still in my head so I'm not really in the gamblin' mood at the moment.

KEEP THOSE DIAMOND HANDS!

KEEP EM SHINEY!

lol

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bitcoin stability palnet leo leofinance
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29 comments
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It's wild to me how these market movements can be so symmetrical and consistent in form. I'm not sure if it is manipulation or the intended outcome from Satoshi, but I don't mind being patient as long as this pattern holds.

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I love it. I'm actually up $40 right now, and picked up a ton of crypto. Love those panic crashes. Picked me up some coin and had all my orders more or less well aligned. HOPEFULLY I'll be able to grow my Hive holdings with these paper hands getting shredded as I carefully put in my orders. Of course, I could also get REKT very soon. Cuz that's how the market works.

These kinda movements are how the market moves and some of that momentum down is whales intentionally selling like this.

They don't care if they sell 10% lower than they planned if they also pick up a few million in the crash. They sell a ton, make lower buys, and use the liquid to position themselves in another market, or buy a house. Over all they almost always end out ahead as other panic at their huge movements.

It's actually a trading strategy when you have that kind of money. You wait for the right moment and move the market.

It's similar if they just need the cash too. They don't care if their overall average price is lower than the market, because they bought in far lower than that. In that case it's not intentionally moving the market, but just that their massive sale was greater than liquidity and they didn't wanna wait for a week or a month to get liquid.

I personally believe that a lot of it looks like botted trading. They intentionally put in sales lower and lower during times of low liquidity to hit lower buys of theirs. Maybe it costs $1 million, or even as low as $100k to move the market, but they likely end up picking up far more than that in crypto that they then use to do the same even higher.

Must be nice having so much liquid...

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(Edited)

For this to work one has to be one of the first one selling and one of the first one buying.

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No. One just needs to look at the market and gauge the possibilities, and then make a movement that fits with the look of the market. Or pile on to others doing so. A wave starts with a single droplet.

Lets say due to some trading signal, it looks like it might go down. It also might not. Until you pile on a few hundred thousand in sales, and follow it down farther and farther.

Without extreme counter pressure, with crypto, it doesn't take much.

It's even known to happen with stocks. The recent incident with the hedge funds was entirely created by them, and then retail investors created the movement upward, which still followed standard trading movements...more or less.

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Why does all this feels so natural... Aren't dips supposed to be part of of a bull market?
Wouldn't trade anything now. I'd say buy and hold works way better during a bull market than trying to trade.

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Yeah, I missed this one. Would have been nice to have been paying attention, but yesterday was the first nice weather day we have had in 3 weeks so I wasn't in the crypto state of mind. Oh well. I think too much big money is in the game for it to have a total crash. It was just getting ahead of itself and needed to take a step back to its growth line.

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Any weakness and I will begin to accumulate some more Sats. The general public is starting to wake up to Bitcoin.

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Ha! That guy's hilarious. It is nice to take a little froth out of the market. The only problem is that if it goes right back up, no one will be scared for the next one, or the next one, and finally people will get rekt. But, it is what it is. I was saying on another post, one big reason I don't think this isn't going to go much lower is that the $1T mkt cap number is a pretty big deal to some very big money. I would expect this to be a new bottom. Hopefully we trade back and forth between $53k and the high. Turning over a trillion dollars at these levels wouldn't hurt my feelings at all. That's roughly 10-14 days I think at current volumes. We'll see. Enjoyed your write up. Followed.

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History is doom to repeat itself, but if you know the numbers you could of sold that top and loaded on the bottom.

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In retrospect, it was inevitable.

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(Edited)

Yeah I mean we have to expect that this will happen at least 3 or 4 more times as the year progresses.

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Random fact, the voice of Bart Simpson is actually a middle aged woman. Not everything is as it seems !

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a socialist doing chart analysis... isn't that like a vegetarian working at a butchers shop?

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I think you are right in your prediction about it will go down to 42k.

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I think you are right in your prediction about it will go down to 42k.

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I still believe we're in the bull scenario, but the flash crash extended one more day, and went a little deeper. It was a 30% dip which started at 58k, 100% after the previous 30% dip. So, I guess this pre-institutional involvement statistical model still worked like clockwork?

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