Full Moon January 17th

So the market is dipping a bit...

So of course everyone is talking about "buying the dip".

Why though?

This market has zero momentum and the bearish moon cycle just started.
Just wait; keep hedging.

I started writing this post 7 hours ago.

Been trying to hedge my stacks for the entire day.
Getting very sidetracked.
Tried to buy some Rune.
Got told I was doing it wrong.

https://app.thorswap.finance/

Apparently you can buy native on-chain Rune for $5.83, but off-chain rune on BEP2 and elsewhere sells for $6.55 at the moment. I found this out when I used the 'upgrade' feature on thorswap that converts BEP2 to real on-chain rune.

Apparently there is no way to arbitrage this market, and the conversion is one way. Still not sure what's up with that. If anyone knows more please comment below.

Now that the double airdrop snapshot has come into play, I'm on the hunt for the other airdrops and liquidity blackholes coming soon™. That means LEO and CUB are where it's at for me at the moment.

pCUB is coming: Sooner™

Expect it in the next week or two.

I've heard that before!

Yes, soon™ is your god now.
Deal with it.

pCUB is on Polygon/MATIC, so I had to get some more of that as well.

All in all I'm feeling pretty good about how I've moved my value around. Truly the ultimate goal is to get more Hive, but the floor for Hive is still 80 cents (With very good unit-bias support around $1).

The moving averages have been key in terms of speculative analysis.

• Critical support for Hive currently rests at $1.25.
• If we expect a death-cross to come down the pipe we will have to trade below this average for quite some time.
• It would be highly bullish to bounce off the 100 day MA to completely avoid the death-cross.
  • Unfortunately the chance of this being a dead-cat-bounce are pretty high in my opinion.
    • Lots of unrealized fundamental gains have been speculated on at this point.

Service Infrastructure Protocol

After doing a bit more research on 3SPEAK I've come to realize that the open-source tech being developed here has very high value. Anyone that forks the 3SPEAK code and creates a SIP creates a powerful DEFI instrument that sucks Hive into a blackhole forever. The only way that Hive can exit the SIP is if the value of the underlying token that uses it goes to zero.

It becomes clear that even if both 3SPEAK and Ragnarok were both complete and utter failures (unlikely), the SIP tech left behind in the wreckage could still be cloned for other valuable projects. This is modular code that a lot of devs are going to use. I believe it has exponential value to Hive.

That being said all traders and speculators always price these things in too early before they've actually brought any value. This is a slow process that requires patience, and as we all know in crypto patience is in very short supply. We have plenty of time to death-cross and bottom out and 80 cents again before spinning back up to the big leagues.

The head-and-shoulders pattern is still fully in play. I think a bounce from here down to $40k would be extremely bullish, enforcing the idea that the real bull market might be in summer 2022.

18-month bull market cycle.

• Summer 2016
• Winter 2017
• Summer 2019
• Winter 2020
• Summer 2022

This pattern has been solid for over five years now.
Hopefully the cycle will continue on and we can make some bank off of it.

Conclusion

This market isn't going to bounce. We are dead in the water. There's a very high chance that we crab-walk on the bottom for a while before moving back up. Rather than buy the dip my strategy is to continue hedging and chasing the CUB/LEO airdrops/blackholes coming up. Rather than trying to catch the falling knife I would advise simply waiting until the market is "boring" again. Wait for the market to trade flat before making a move. I think we have at least one more dip to go before everyone gets shaken off the idea that a mega-bubble was coming.

But what if you're wrong?

As I often am wrong about these things, the idea is to have a balanced position. I've actually never felt better about my current positioning. Doesn't mater if number goes up or down at this point. I'm ready for both, and you should be too. With the full moon coming on the 17th I'll probably refactor this decision two or three days before that. I doubt I'll change anything. To be continued.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta