Crypto Twitter Already Starting to FOMO
The insufferable emotional swing of the financial roller coaster.
We get five days of green and look what happens. Sentiment is already shifting to "oh no it's too late to buy, I missed it". Comical really. To think that $22k is too late to buy when the doubling trendline says... hold on let me recalculate it... $37462. Yup, doubling curve claims the fair price of Bitcoin is over $37k. Wild. Unfortunately we have to wait for the FED to collapse the economy before we can get back there.
It's basically impossible for number to go up while the FED is aggressively increasing interest rates at a record pace trying to stop "inflation". And of course "inflation" in this context has nothing to do with the actual money supply and everything to do with the prices of goods that have skyrocketed from nothing other than government policy (COVID lockdowns and Russian sanctions). Funny how democrats can so easily break the economy and then expect someone else to fix it. That's the world we're living in I guess. No worries, this slow motion train wreck is finally going to derail and we can finally start picking up the pieces of the broken economy. Judging the the metrics in play it's only going to take one more foolish increase of interest rates to push multiple industries over the edge.
CPI 9.1%.
Looks like crypto Twitter has already forgotten about this data. Memory of a goldfish I tell ya. I predicted that Bitcoin would find support during the full moon (as it often does). Was hoping for $20k but it crashed back to the $18k level. Now we've been up for almost a week straight and people have forgotten what it's like when price can dump 30% in an hour. heh.
The FED said they would wait for the data to come in before announcing their decision with rates. This 9.1% CPI, while a lagging indicator, could easily be used as an excuse to increase rates again. Again, this may be a planned controlled demolition of the economy; something I've been predicting would happen since before COVID. There's only so long the economy can hang on before no one can save it. Once that happens the smartest thing to do is to mitigate the damage on the way down. Unfortunately this "soft landing" they've been talking about seems delusional at this point.
Could Bitcoin have already completely bottomed?
Sure, there's a significant chance that $18k is the uncrackable bottom. However, given what I'm seeing with the economy and the FED I have to assume we will return to that level at least one more time. I still feel like the stock market has to crash another 13% before we've entered that 'max pain' territory. Would be surprising if BTC didn't crash like 25% during that time. However, say BTC was trading at $24k during the 25% drop... again that gets us to a price of $18k.
Light at the end.
By the time the legacy recession has officially started, crypto will likely already be out of it. That's just the nature of the game. Crypto and tech itself evolve much faster than the legacy systems. Most of the garbage has already been flushed down the toilet. Most of the ridiculous longs have already been liquidated. Bulls are licking their wounds and getting excited again. Should be interesting.
Conclusion
Still... Don't fight the FED. There's no reason to go all in on crypto until the FED is FORCED to reverse course due to how badly they messed everything up. If they decide to radically increase rates again after already doing just that... this house of cards is going to blow over. Here's to hoping they rip the bandaid off quickly rather than over a slow grind. I'm ready to rebuild.
Make no mistake, Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is massively oversold. We are spring-loaded and ready to explode upward. However, no one is going to pull the trigger while the FED has their finger hovering over the global recession button. The second they are forced to reverse course we are going to get a bull run. Here's to hoping sooner rather than later.
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Pretty much all central bankers are Keynesians of one stripe or another. Quantitative easing is their comfort zone. Sure, they’ll raise interest rates if the think they have no other choice, but easy money policies are a security blanket for them.
Well said, start FOMOing only when the FED start the printing press again.
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Not sure that the democrats broke the economy though, I mean did they actually have enough time to do that?
No I mean it's been broken for decades they are just fueling the fire a bit right now.
Gotcha. It all lay in Obama's hands but pretty sure that the bubble was created before he even thought about being the president.
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Haha, crypto Twitter always go crazy. So much drama and FUD spreading everywhere.
A little later is also fine with me Ed. Need to fill up my bags before the next bull run. This time I want to be fully prepared for the best. xD
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Let's not forget bailouts all over the god damned place, and 970%+ CEO wage increases since 1970 while workers have remained predominantly flat. The distribution and production hits definitely made things worse, but this was coming for sure no matter what happened. We just moved up the timetable. The wealth inequality everywhere leaves an imbalance that can only be corrected with recession or depression. Or revolt.
Pretty sure we are in for another huge increase and with that it's going to be a bit too aggressive. However that aggressive nature is actully going to make the USD stronger as every country that has to pay us back will be paying back at a increased rate.
98% Of people wont make it and those are you twitter users they say the miss and its too late to buy in or get involved or say its all going to burn down lol. Legit never fails in any aspect of business, finances etc. Always that 98% and it take a big mind shift to get out of it.
Crypto is seen as the riskiest market by many. While this is the case, why would anyone multiply the financial risks they take amid global inflation and the threats of FED.
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A move to $30k would be something like the $14k pump we've had back in 2019, but then again we don't have to replicate anything from the past. I'm more than cautious this time and my gut feeling tells me won't see any bull market starting until like the end of 2023. I bought some crypto the past few weeks but honestly wouldn't mind buying even more blood out of the streets, if possible. One thing that crosses my mind so often is: if the past bull cycle we haven't had a proper blow-off top, why would this bear market be anything similar to the past couple of ones?
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Nauty set of people when we talk about cryto Twitters always creating panic everywhere and only the weeker vessels usually fall for their trap
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This right here!
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All of the ridiculous mainstream fiscal policy is the very reason crypto exists and was the first motive for many to support it, long before it was a "investment" it was a plan to break out of bad governments destroying people's lives with monetary policy.
I guess we should suck it up for the bears and watch Bitcoin do it's job in the nations that are crumbling.
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Someone said everybody that FOMOs this period is just providing exit liquidity for the people that got rekt in the bear market 😆
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Very insightful and educative post you have shared a very good point @edicted
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This is the time to acoomulate and forage for what little sprigs of nutrition we can still yet harvest from this soon to be radiated soil.