CBDC FUD is a Red Herring
Anyone who's been on Crypto Twitter for any length of time has noticed that CBDCs get talked about a lot... even though they don't exist (and probably never will). Dozens of people will read this and immediately be like, "Well what about China? Checkmate!" Uh, okay. Show me the CBDC. Where is it? How do I buy digital CNY? Oh what's that? I can't? Yeah, because it doesn't exist. It's vapor; a gigantic nothing-burger.
My most recent analysis of CBDC is that, if anything, it's madly bullish and can only help crypto. We'd be teaching the entire world how to use crypto. We'd be training thousands of devs to learn blockchain. Free Paid education is pretty valuable. The narrative that "crypto is bad" suddenly melts away and all the current propaganda against it would fail miserably. There's more to be said here but that's not what this post is about.
Japan said no, now USA says no.
The Fed has 'not decided to proceed' with a digital dollar, says Powell
What a shocking revelation... not.
We need to pay attention to this.
Why is everyone in crypto freaking out about CBDC...?
But then the government is like 'nah we're gonna pass'.
Does that make sense?
It absolutely does not if we're listening to Crypto Twitter.
The narrative within Crypto Twitter and other crypto circles is that CBDC is ultimate totalitarian control mechanism, and that governments are going to push them forward as hard and as fast as they possibly can. This logic is not based in reality, and no one seems to ask what is going on here.
When conspiracy theory fails
There are a lot of skeptics, pessimists, and anarchists in crypto. What is actually happening here is that they are parroting the worst case scenario at maximum volume even though such a scenario is not even possible or valuable to anyone. That's not how politics and the economy works. The only way the CBDC FUD makes any sense is if people are dumbing down reality and making simplistically wild assumptions about economic nuances they know nothing about. Authoritarianism is a threat >> and therefore CBDC will usher in a wave of unparalleled authoritarianism. Skip all the steps it takes to get there from here: the threat is real (not).
Powell did elaborate that, if adopted, a U.S. CBDC would have several key characteristics: intermediated, privacy-protected, identity-verified, and interoperable.
Kind of a funny statement to make.
Intermediated, privacy-protected, and identity-verified are basically the same thing. Notice the order he puts them in. It's significant. Saying 'privacy-protected' before 'identity-verified'? That's funny... because if it wasn't 'identity-verified' then it would be automatically private (exponentially moreso). But no even the language of these people inherently twists things around. Always a lovely politics game.
THE REAL VARIABLE: INTEROPERABLE.
100% of the value of CBDC is interoperability. This is what people in crypto don't seem to understand. CBDC only has value if it connects to the real cryptos where real value is being created. It has to leech from the greater network to have any value whatsoever, and thus we see how the CBDC narrative that gets espoused from these small-time conspiracy theorists is completely bogus.
Make it make sense.
The current logical fallacy in play:
Okay so they already have a digital dollar. It's called USD. But 'they' are going to create a CBDC... we'll call it FEDCOIN. FEDCOIN is very bad because it tracks everything and gives the government complete totalitarian control. They will put expiration dates on your money and force you to have liberal political views. What a nightmare!
"They"? Who is "They"?
Well... them... you know... the Deep State! Yeah! That's the ticket!
lol dude... no.
There is a MASSIVE conflict of interest here. 'THEY' don't exist. The entity that's going to create the CBDC doesn't exist. We are actually supposed to believe that private banks that control the money supply are going to just willingly hand over all their power to the politicians and the government? How do you think private banks got all their power in the first place? They're just going to piss it all away for no reason? That's absurd.
All of these wild theories are spawned from the idea that there is some homogenous elite group of people that control the world who always work together against the entire world's best interest in order to enrich themselves. This is a fantasy based on an embarrassingly simplistic view of the world. There is no deep state.
Is government the ultimate form of power in the world? Of course not. It's complicated as shit. But nobody got time for that, so must be a Deep State that controls everything, amirite? Kind of like saying, "God works in mysterious ways," or "Everything happens for a reason." It's a celebration of ignorance, and the acceptance of an overly simplistic worldview without any intention of trying to learn more. Not great.
THE REAL VARIABLE: INTEROPERABLE.
The problem with the current mainstream CBDC narrative is that it exists within an impossible paradox. A CBDC only has value if it connects to real crypto, but the CBDC narrative demands that all crypto be made illegal and the only currency citizens can use is the CBDC. Obviously, this is an absurd notion, but it just keeps getting parroted over and over regardless.
Explain how we get from where we are now... to this magical future where the only option is a CBDC. What happened to cash? What happened to USD? What happened to fiat? What happened to the entire commercial banking sector? Is bartering illegal? Are gold and silver illegal? How many years did it take for this to happen? Because everyone makes it sound like it could happen tomorrow. Ridiculous.
Again, people will say stupid shit like: "Well, look at North Korea". Are you serious? No, I will not look at the most extreme edge case that can only exist as an edge case. The exception proves the rule. People in America can not suddenly be lorded over like North Korea does things. A transition like that would take decades. The frog boils slowly. Try again.
There's also this implication that CBDC allows these things to happen whereas the old legacy technology doesn't. Really? People really believe that? They do. They actually believe that CBDC is a critical piece of technology for the implementation of fascism. Well guess what fellas. Fascism has been around a lot longer than the Internet. It was doing just fine before CBDC was invented.
To assume that CBDC is necessary to put expiration dates on money and track everything and force people to act a certain way... it's just absurd. It's just a database. It's just a ledger. It's just code and regulation and policy. CBDC has nothing to do with any of this stuff. And yet over and over everyone tries to put it in a vacuum and act like this dystopic reality is right around the corner. It's... so obviously not though.
CBDC can be programmed to work in any way
It's also just extremely presumptuous to assume that every CBDC is going to work exactly the same way. It's code. It will work in whatever way in which it is coded. The only thing that makes a CBDC a CBDC is the institution that issued the currency. If the government creates a crypto: It's a CBDC. If I create a crypto that uses the exact same codebase, it's not a CBDC.
See how that works?
The code is completely variable and could be anything. All the matters is who issues it. To assume we know how things work before they've been created is just the ultimate toddler game of speculation. There is no way to guess correctly in advance. The world is a bit more complex than that.
Here's a video from taskmaster4450 that comes to the exact same conclusion that I do about CBDC. It's a complete nothing-burger. It's enterprise blockchain. Remember enterprise blockchain? Billions of dollars were spent to create these things. They are worthless and no one uses them. CBDC is exactly the same thing. They can't force us to use them. If you think they can, you are wrong. Plain and simple. They will not get adoption. Period the end.
It's not even a discussion.
We already know what the value of crypto is. The value of crypto is that no one controls it. But then the CBDC narrative comes into the view of sub-par conspiracy theorists and they just throw everything they know about crypto right out the fucking window and try to say that CBDC has value because it imposes totalitarianism on the population and that's valuable to those who control the CBDC... like... really? REALLY? The value of crypto is that it's decentralized but the value of CBDC is that it's the most centralized hunk of shit the planet has ever seen? There's a word for this... it's called...
And so crypto conspiracy theorists are just going to continue carrying on thinking that CBDC is the greatest threat to humanity the world has ever seen. It truly blows my fucking mind. How could anyone possibly think such a thing. IT HAS NO VALUE. IT HAS ZERO VALUE. STOP TALKING ABOUT IT LIKE IT'S RELEVANT. EVEN THE BANKS DON'T WANT THEM. Jesus Christ.
And I think the reason why this becomes so frustrating is that most people just tend to focus on the wrong things, and this is one of those wrong things that really doesn't need any kind of thought put towards it whatsoever. Not one single person who talks about the 'threat' of CBDC has anything constructive or interesting to say about how we should fight against them. It's just parroting the same message over and over again: CBDC bad; we shouldn't use them. Yeah... no shit. Thank you Captain Obvious for that inspiring message.
Why are we worried that people are going to use them when it's obvious they lack any and all intrinsic value and there's absolutely no point to them because the only point of crypto is decentralization? And then the conspiracy theorists pop in to remind us that the government will FORCE us to use them so haha checkmate got ya now! Like, no, shut the fuck up. Thanks. You're dumb. Stop being dumb.
If the government can force us to use an experimental currency that is a blatantly obvious conflict of interest across the board... then that is probably the least of our concerns at that time. We're going to be more worried about our next meal than what kind of money we're transacting in at that point. But again, people like to put these thought-experiments inside their little theory-bubbles and act as though it can all happen within a vacuum where CBDC is implemented and everything is exactly the same as it is now... just with CBDC. No, that's not how life works. Cut the shit.
Conclusion
CBDC is not a threat. It has no value; we know for a fact it has no value and exactly why it has no value. The government can't force citizens to use it. STFU about China, they can't even ban Bitcoin after banning it over a dozen times. Even those who might want implement it know that its only value is interoperability with real cryptocurrency.
All of these factors add up to one simple conclusion: we allow the idea of a totalitarian Deep State dystopia ruled by CBDC to live in our brains rent free for absolutely no reason. Stop worrying about trifles. CBDC is vaporware.
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Nothing to see here 👀
A fellow Hive member pointed these out to me. I did the research and it’s quite real. How is forced use not a threat to freedom? I know my account name might be confusing but it’s sarcasm :) I hate the Fed
“ Deep State dystopia ruled by CBDC to live in our brains rent free for absolutely no reason. Stop worrying about trifles. CBDC is vaporware”
Gotta disagree here. We should be well informed and not freaking out but pretending it’s not happening is a whole other thing.
It’s not a thought experiment it’s a real thing that’s been worked on since 2015 at the Fed.
You know who else thought they were building something that was going to get adoption?
Every single enterprise blockchain project.
Watch what happens.
Watch how it actually plays out rather than how it's been planned out.
Theory and reality rarely sync up.
Hard to take you seriously when I went into detail about how forced use is impossible.
Best they can do is heavily incentivize usage through UBI and a collapsed economy.
Interesting though because I have mentioned how the Hamilton musical is very weird because he was a total piece of shit central banker (which is vaguely referenced in the end of the play). Again I'm not blind to these things. I'm a realist. It can't happen the way people say it's going to happen.
Nice check it out I found it.
https://peakd.com/@edicted/central-banks-vs-banks
You see?
I'm very obviously paying attention to these things.
Don't you worry about me.
I watched the first video and it proves my point more than ever.
The system that got created is purposefully overcomplicated.
No one has any incentive to allow it to happen.
In fact he says the exact same thing I did here:
There is no Deep State and these people don't trust each other.
I mean there literally telling us it’s coming
Especially the European Central Bank
When was the last time the government said something and then that thing happened exactly like they said it?
These politicians have no idea what they are fucking doing.
How will they force this and illegalize the entire rest of the banking sector?
It has no value, it will gain no adoption because it has no value.
There are massive conflicts of interests here.
It's a pipe dream for the people who control it and against everyone else's best interest.
For every powerful person that wants a CBDC there are 100 other very powerful people that don't.
Have u seen the dummies in our society? Of course it will be excepted. People sell there souls for a $600 stimulus check. They’ll load it up with a grand or two and 80% plus of population will be using it in a week.
Plebs don't get to decide these things.
The only people who want a CBDC are the ones who control it.
The only way for a technology to usurp the incumbent tech is to be 10x better.
Have you heard this? It's quite true. CBDC isn't even as good as the current system.
It's impossible for it to gain any traction whatsoever.
We shall see, but I understand the reasoning you have now. I hope you are right!
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but as it stands now, this is my assessment: CBDC is a huge nothing-burger... just like enterprise blockchain. Do you remember how everyone was talking about enterprise blockchain in this exact same way? Now no one talks about it... because it was never a threat to begin with; just like CBDC.
@yibbiy
They admit it above, thought you’d find clip interesting 👍
You are spot on, CBDC is ready and waiting. It will be in USA by 2030 I guesses latest or at least the full rollout attempt. Now I’d bet a year or two after Europe at longest and Europe I think 2024 latest.
I really don't think they will go for it at this point. They have also said in the past that they would let the private sector do that. I believe USDC is basically what they are going to tap as the 'digital dollar'. I mean there has to be a reason Black Rock got involved...
It’s already here, Europe pushing it out within 18 months. It’s already ready and waiting just watch.
1988
Love this tune!
The idea is totally incredible
Which part is most interesting to ya? I agree so curious whatcha think about it.
They think we are stupid. It might work with those on the margins of the crypto, but not with those in the thick of it...
Right... but that just becomes an onramp into mainstream adoption.
They suck up no-coiners who inevitably will join the real communities.
60% of the west is on welfare. They’ll sign up day one. Quote me
2024 latest - Europe rollout
2025 latest USA Rollout
You're operating under the assumption that poor people on welfare are making the decisions here.
But you also know this isn't the case.
You're completely ignoring the fact that the only entity that wants CBDC to happen is the entity that controls the CBDC. Your completely ignoring the fact that for every powerful person that wants CBDC, there are 100 other equally powerful people that don't want it. You're completely ignoring the fact that real crypto is already the superior option, and there's no reason why everyone wouldn't just jump into the real networks that are actually building the real value.
Plain and simple: you are wrong.
And when you are proven wrong you aren't going to admit that you were wrong.
You'll just move on and pretend like it never happened, just like everybody else does.
But don't worry by then there will be some other centralized hunk of shit that everyone will be worried about and crying wolf.
This is what people who talk about CBDC sound like.
It's not real.
It's never going to happen.
qenjiqweqheb
you said it guy
Wisdom indeed :)
Not likely at this very moment, doesn’t mean it is not probable if all the chess pieces line up.
The “conspiracy” narrative on the surface:
These are just the surface, the rabbit hole is deep.
I would not dismiss the possibility , it is good for the general population to be aware and awake. Unfortunately many would trade everything for that “convenience” and perception of “safety” as evident in the last few years.
And the programming and planning goes back decades and not just the last few years, right now is the execution phase.
But everyone already knows that a CBDC is not safe and is guaranteed to lose value over time just like fiat. It is fiat. There is no difference. Nothing has changed. Sure, we should at least pay attention to these things, but also the noise needs to be filtered out. Priorities matter.
My thinking is central banks also don’t want the transparency on how and how much fiat they create out of thin air. The privacy protections got to be asymmetric and the public would need to accept that for this to gain adoption, outside of totalitarian style forcing it down.
Or CDBC can be limited for international settlements only, but then the value is limited and why do that? Then again, it is only as valuable as policy prudence and domestic productivity (and military might to enforce), which central bank would want to open the book first? 😂
This is exactly why Intranets and Extranets failed where the Internet thrived.
The only point of CBDC is to link up with Bitcoin and the rest of crypto.
The open system is the one that has value.
Everything will connect to the open system.
My last reply but had to comment on this part
No not everybody knows this. The world is full of state living shills who get untested injections for a free cheeseburger and fries and live on welfare which could easily be made only for the new digital dollar over time. The world is not overall informed. Can we bet on this?
The Euro version will be here within 18 months
I feel relieved now...
I'm sure you do.
You'll feel even better when DXY nosedives and crypto rallies hard.
A parabolic run in USD only lasts so long.
Lool sorry, they are often times more interesting and dramatic.
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Anyone who was paying attention should have realized this was coming. I dont know how many videos I came across proclaiming that FedNow is a CBDC. These people do not even know what they are talking about.
Powell was against CBDCs from the start. He understands what it will do to the bankers and he is not about to screw them over.
You are right, the Fed and BOJ both ditched the idea of CBDCs, at least for now.
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Yeah I feel like we might be humming a different tune 5-10 years down the road but for now it's just a waste of breath and pointless speculation.
It’s not speculation! I understand you think the people will reject it. I respect ur opinion👍
But you saying it’s just speculation a lot of people take as you don’t think its even a plan.
When we have the leaders talking about it endlessly. I think the attitude you and task have kinda poo pooing the people really thinking it’s a huge problem comes off I dunno I just think you’d be better to explain yes it’s a plan but I think it’s totally rejected: instead of making these headlines sounding like anyone who takes seriously is a fool or something.
Banger of a post.
The thing is, in first world countries there are a lot of people relying on government funds that are actually worried about their next meal.
Not just lazy bums who don't want to work.
The truly vulnerable members of society
...The ones we ignored in favour of oUr rIgHtZ when the public health system was inundated.
The disabled etc.
It's this subsection of society who will have no choice but to use the fully programmable CBDC because they have no other choice.
Taking those welfare payment debit cards that can't be spent on booze and gambling to the next level.
I fully agree with you that a CBDC is not going to go mainstream because quite frankly there will always be alternatives that are MUCH more attractive to society.
But they're coming and going to at least initially play a role in subsections of our society.
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The main point I'm trying to make here is that everything is going to turn out in a way that nobody predicted.
The future is going to be very very weird and totally unpredictable.
Chaos Theory and exponential advances in technology guarantee it.
They would have to pay Reggie for his patent to be able to make a cbdc.
https://patents.google.com/patent/US20170187535A1/en
https://londonlovestech.com/veritaseum-sues-coinbase-for-350m-over-infringement/
They are demons and run the NWO. They don’t gotta pay for anything. They run the show unfortunately.