Bitcoin has never consolidated in this range before.

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When Bitcoin was riding high at $60k+, no one believed that it would even return to the doubling curve ($25k at the time) let alone back to 2017's all time high. I guess all them CME futures gaps ended up being filled after all. Oops.

The fact of the matter is that most people are running scared right now, but Bitcoin is comically oversold on almost every metric. Everyone brings up the 'fact' that Bitcoin crashes 85% after a bull market. Really? What about the bull market of summer 2019?

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From $4000 to $13500 to $6500.

That was only a 52% crash. When we look at our most recent bull run in relation to the doubling curve trendline, we spiked above the curve pretty much exactly the same in 2020 and 2021 as we did in summer 2019. I was personally expecting at worst maybe a 55% dip from the top, which puts Bitcoin around $31000. That is a reasonable level that we should have been able to hold, but instead here we are clawing at the peak of 2017.

Institutions were just as greedy and stupid as retail.

This actually really surprised me. I honestly thought all these businesses being built and all these billionaire CEOs jumping in were not falling victim to FOMO (except Michael Saylor of course). I thought they had balanced positions and were ready to buy the dip. I thought their business models were sound and could easily survive an 85% loss on BTC.

Clearly, that was grossly inaccurate.

Look how many longs got squeezed. Look at how many exchanges and other custodial services have somehow gone insolvent. That shouldn't even be possible, but it was because they were all greedy as hell and leveraged up to their ears. That's fine when your investing your own money, but when you build an entire platform on top of that risky gamble? What the actual fuck is going on here?

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Bulls just need time to regroup.

I've been looking at the trading history of Bitcoin, and I've noticed that BTC has actually NEVER traded in this range for any significant period of time. Let's go check the charts, shall we?

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Everyone knows that 2017 peaked at $19500, but many forget how long we were actually there. It was only a matter of days. We can see that there were only 5 daily candles that were even above $18k. That doesn't even really count, so we have to look at the 2020 bull run for more info.

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Here we see that Bitcoin traded for about a month within this $17k-$20k range before popping off to $40k. However, that's a bit different, isn't it? During this time in Q4 2020, Bitcoin was essentially trading at all time highs, now the exact same range is a massive local low that's wiped out 18 months worth of gains and even more when counting leverage.

So again, this market has never been in a position like it's in right now, ever. Ever never ever. It's insane how oversold we are, flushing out all the garbage that isn't robust enough to handle the volatility. That's why I'm so grateful to be involved with Hive. Hive is so grizzled and should have died a thousand times over by now, but yet here we are. We know exactly how to survive in a crypto winter. As terrible as it is to say: Hive can crash another 75% and we'll still be totally fine. We've been in the gutter before and we've come out of it a more efficient and evolved machine.

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And then there's things like this...

BIS To Allow Member Banks To Hold 1% Of Their Reserves In Bitcoin

Um, really?

The interest of the BIS in Bitcoin is particularly fascinating as it follows a strange pattern among global banks, which is to vocally criticize cryptocurrencies in the media while quietly investing millions or billions of dollars into crypto technology and infrastructure.

Hm, yeah... exactly.

The sharks smell blood in the water, and here they are moving in and allowing huge amounts of money that was legally not allowed to be invested into Bitcoin... and look at that... now it is, right after the worst monthly candle Bitcoin has EVER posted in its 13 year trading history.

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"Worst" month... ever... wow.

And people still think Bitcoin is going to crash to what? $10k? Ug, that's literally what they ALWAYS say. Every single time crypto crashes everyone says it's going to crash 50% more. Then if it crashes 50% more they say it will crash 50% more. I mean eventually you're guaranteed to be wrong using that strategy. Better to stick to the plan.

THE PLAN

The plan was always to consider this range ($20k) a critical support and consolidation area of last resort. Now that we are here everyone is running scared, and that is par for the course. Legit happens every single time. This aint my first rodeo.

Crypto moves ten times faster than the legacy system.

The real wildcard variable here is a looming recession that could hit everything like a ton of bricks. In my opinion, that is pretty much the only way Bitcoin crashes below this critical range that we've literally never consolidated in. But then looking as the worldwide adoption and infrastructure that we are seeing, it's still hard to imagine a recession hurting Bitcoin when it is already this chronically oversold.

At worst I'm somewhat expecting that we get a dead-bounce recovery and then a recession kicks in and stomps everything into the ground all over again. Crypto moves ten times faster than the legacy system. It crashes ten times harder and it recovers ten times better. The correlation between the two is rendered completely useless when looking at the timelines.

The one day correlation is stronger than the one week correlation, which is stronger than the one month correlation, which is stronger than the one year correlation. After ten years stocks have gone x2 and Bitcoin has gone x1000 and it becomes painfully obvious that the 'correlation' people are seeing doesn't mean anything whatsoever. There's no way to extract a profit from that data. It's a worthless trailing indicator of the past. I can't make money off of the knowledge that Bitcoin went x20 in 2017.

speaking of x20...

  • We never got that mega-bubble we were expecting.
  • We never got the 18-month bull run.
    • (June was the worst month ever).
  • All the garbage is getting flushed down the toilet.

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This is what the crypto market looks like right now.

Everyone is expecting another fire but... there's very little left to be lit on fire. All the fuel is gone. Everything left already knows how to survive the winter.

Of course this is not useful day-trading advice (but then again, is anything?) The only way to increase our chances of winning this game are by playing the long-game. Certainly, if we had been selling the spikes this whole time, this might be a great time to go almost all in. Unfortunately, 99% of everyone didn't do that, so not really helpful in hindsight. Also everyone's situation is different, so there isn't really a one-size-fits-all strategy.

For example, I'm paying my bills with crypto at this point. That's a pretty huge variable to consider. If the market bleeds and I'm all in and have to pay bills, I basically get forced to sell the bottom. Not a very ideal situation, and also not everyone is in this situation. Good thing I have the tiniest footprint.

Let's see... what else?

Big moves in the market take a while to adjust to. It wasn't that long ago that people were asking if it was a bad idea to sell Hive at $1.40, and even more recently Bitcoin at $30k. Now those questions seem like a distant memory. We've had a little bit of time to adjust to this new environment, which is still insanely volatile and unpredictable, but that's the name of the game.

Conclusion

The $15k to $20k range is one that Bitcoin has never even come close to consolidating in. We've only been at this level during all time highs and FOMO. Now resistance is flipping to support, and FOMO flipping to FUD. I guess that's all part of the journey.

It's unclear as to how long we'll be trading in this range, but the garbage is getting flushed down the toilet. The forest has been set aflame. We will see what survives and what regrows from the ashes.

Oh yeah also in my last post about Uganda finding more gold than exists in circulation...
Unsurprisingly that was totally fake if you didn't catch the memo. But the overarching themes are still completely relevant.
Gold will only ever be gold.
Crypto is alive and constantly evolving.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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23 comments
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It's true that Bitcion price came down beyond imagination . I can still remember that once i asked a expert about the possiblity of retest 42 k price level of Bitcoin when BTC was at 60k. That time he humilated me in that group in front of other group member saying that "there is no chance of 45 k let alone 42k". Whenever i see BTC price it remind me that incident😂.I just wish i could ask something to that expert.
Whatever happening with BTC , it's happening because of manipulation of investors in my opinion. They missed the last time and that could be the reason they spreading panic news and continusty dumping the market and they are taking it as a opportunity to buy it in cheap price.
whatever i said here is just my opinion

Besides i liked the last picture of this article and i also think that it's representing the situation of recent crypto market.

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Bulls caught the falling knife too early, now they are out of money 😂😂😂

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BTC never solidified at this price range, true, it only stayed there for a few days, but we've been around the 18-22k price for over a week now, and if this trend continues, it means good news. The fact that hedge fund, retail and foundations money went this hard into BTC without support in their portfolios to defend the price is hilarious and, given how much the market is bleeding and so many projects are not going to see the light of day after this is just normal market behavior, only the solid communities and intelligent investors are going to come out of this with the upper hand. I'm slowly going back at risk positions after a few weeks of staying in stablecoins after escaping when BTC seemed would drop to 28k. I recently invested on Hive and Leo because as you say, only the solid projects will endure, and Hive is ridiculously underrated at the time.

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The long game is the only game as far as crypto is concerned.

Hive can crash another 75% and we'll still be totally fine. We've been in the gutter before and we've come out of it a more efficient and evolved machine.

This.

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Heh I know so many people that were saying "I wish I joined when crypto was cheaper". Well it's cheaper now and those same people are panic selling

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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yeah it's truly wild how this just happens over and over again.

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(Edited)

There is something going on behind the scenes. I said it months ago, some kind of co ordinated attack from big players. But interest rates in traditional 'safe' form are going to kill the casino and so will the credit crunch cost of living crunch and basically the war thats going to kick off and drag on. Retailers wont have money to gamble with, and bankers wont have money to borrow to gamble with to steal it from them. Positive feedback loops can turn into negative feedback loops and nobody will touch Bitcoin with a barge pole in this environment. An asset that has been trending down and bleeding out for 2 or 3 years is not attractive especially when average guy cant afford food to eat and petrol to get to work. Cash is king period. When only the diehards are left, BUY. The FUD and damage done by Luna and that cocky awful human Do Kwon is having massive ramifications, people cannot be trusted to be responsible with money, and crypto will certainly have it's Lehman or .com type of event times 1000.

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  • You will own nothing.
  • You will be happy.
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I agree that the system is young and need to improve in handling scams and negligence, but the future is promising.

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The sharks smell blood in the water, and here they are moving in and allowing huge amounts of money that was legally not allowed to be invested into Bitcoin... and look at that... now it is, right after the worst monthly candle Bitcoin has EVER posted in its 13 year trading history.

Funny that!


Oh yeah also in my last post about Uganda finding more gold than exists in circulation...
Unsurprisingly that was totally fake if you didn't catch the memo.

Embarrassing.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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Yeah so many entities reported on that.
Actually kinda weird.

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The chart structure of 2021 is completely different from 2017. Each successive cycle the chart is going to mature and saturate, it will produce rallies but we should not expect like 20x every single rally. 20K was broken and this happened for the first time in BTC that it could not able to preserve its previous ATH. That said, I still see 16k as the strong support, I hope it does not give up that level.

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I think the fiat interest rate is the key. Currently the crypto prices calculate expectations to higher raises. But prices aside, blockchain tech and DAO are set to thrive and I love your picture of the new growth after a wild fire. This is exactly what I think will happen.

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I am also a bit surprised to see all the companies implode over the past year. It's like LUNA and UST have created some large chain of crashes and we see issues with Celcius and Blockfi. I don't think this is the end of this chain so I am wondering whether or not BTC will stay in the range.

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For example, I'm paying my bills with crypto at this point. That's a pretty huge variable to consider.

Same here. That's why I now regret not taking profits a year ago... Maybe next time.

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Interesting history of the Bitcon highs and lows.

I agree it is a longterm purchase with money you don't need for 5-10 years.

I am putting in my kids IRA's for their future.

I am teaching them to stack for the future.

I also agree with living in a small footprint. Covid really reinforced that I don't need very much and so I cut out most stuff and focus on what I enjoy; accumulating knowledge and crypto.

Repel all boarders of your mind, seeking to convert you with FUD or FOMO, and stick to the plan.

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It's unclear as to how long we'll be trading in this range, but the garbage is getting flushed down the toilet. The forest has been set aflame. We will see what survives and what regrows from the ashes. — mhmm! Law of natural selection!
Seems this phenomenon touches all sphere of life .

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I’d bet on 14K combing. I’ll put my money where my mouth is.

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