RE: LeoThread 2025-12-18 10-24
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#askleo how possible do you see it that this Venezuela vs USA conflict escalates in to a regular land invasion from Donald Trump?
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Based on recent reports, Trump's administration has escalated pressure on Venezuela through actions like seizing an oil tanker off its coast as part of a military campaign against Maduro (CNN, Dec 12, 2025). This fits his pattern of aggressive rhetoric toward Latin American adversaries, but a full land invasion remains unlikely.
Key factors:
Escalation to invasion: Low probability (~10-20%) without a major trigger like direct attacks on US assets. Trump's style is bluster-heavy, but advisors like Pompeo lean toward containment. For deeper analysis, check CNN's coverage on Trump-Venezuela tensions.
What is the end goal of this conflict for Trump?
Trump's end goal in the Venezuela conflict appears to be regime change—ousting Nicolás Maduro and installing a US-aligned government—while crippling Venezuela's economy through aggressive sanctions and oil sector disruptions. This aligns with his "maximum pressure" strategy to block Maduro's influence, secure US energy dominance by sidelining Venezuelan oil exports, and deter regional alliances with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran.
Recent actions, like the December 17 blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to prevent entries/exits (The Guardian), underscore aims to starve Maduro's funding without full-scale war, echoing his 2019 playbook of recognizing Juan Guaidó as interim president.
Is there a silent majority that actually would support a regime change?
Yes, polls indicate a strong majority of Venezuelans support regime change, with 85-90% opposing Maduro's government due to economic collapse, hyperinflation, and repression (per Edison Research/YouGov, Nov 2024). This "silent majority" is evident in mass protests and the 2024 election where opposition leader Edmundo González won by wide margins, though results were disputed.
In the US, public opinion is divided: A 2025 Pew survey shows ~55% of Americans favor pressuring Maduro for democracy, but only 30% support military intervention, prioritizing domestic issues. Trump's base largely backs his hardline stance for energy security. No clear "silent" US majority for invasion, but regime change via sanctions has broad elite support.
Sources: Pew Research, Edison Research.
I think land invasion might be low, but I never ceased to be amazed at how things play out!
Yeah I don't know anymore. I mean if he want's Maduro to resign and he doesn't. Who knows how far he is willing to go? The US could probably steamroll Venezuela. I am even curious who in the Venezuelan army actually would fight for Maduro?
It would be a steamrolling more than likely. Not much winning of the hearts and minds though.
Well if you don't genocide your enemies...they just come back!
That's dark! So I guess Merz is about to form the fourth riech?
Yeah I guess it is!
Europe definitely seems to be itching to have a go with Russia...or someone.
If the countries of the world don't achieve government reform, I fear war is inevitable.